In the aftermath of North Korea's first nuclear test, the Oct. 23 edition of Newsweek reported that US officials close to US Vice President Dick Cheney warned their Chinese counterparts that Japan could be forced to join the nuclear club.
Washington was apparently hoping that the looming rise of Japan -- one of China's historical archenemies -- as a nuclear power in eastern Asia would motivate Beijing to put an end to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's mischief.
The problem lies in the fact that forewarnings of this sort have been given to Beijing numerous times before, albeit not necessarily directly or openly through officials in the administration of US President George W. Bush.
Washington may have failed to grasp Beijing's calculations in this precarious game of nuclear gambling because China did nothing as Kim proceeded with the test.
To Beijing, the fear of the consequences of a collapsing North Korea may have outweighed reservations about a nuclear Japan and concerns over nuclear proliferation.
Beijing could also have concluded that Japan would face insurmountable hurdles if it sought nuclear weapons, especially given its experience as the only nation to have ever been devastated by nuclear bombs.
Japan would require a constitutional amendment and a wholesale overhaul of its national psyche to overcome such high barriers. A recent opinion poll showing that more than 70 percent of Japanese were against nuclear arms amply attests to this difficulty.
Although eastern Asia's nuclear escalation, including Japan's potential about-face, might complicate China's quest for hegemony in the region, a successful formalization of Taiwanese independence could spell the end of the Chinese Communist Party's stranglehold on Chinese people. Even the limited use of this trump card could be potent.
While Taiwan and North Korea are two of the region's most volatile flash points and despite sharing striking similarities in terms of the involvement of the US and China, the cases involving Taipei and Pyongyang couldn't be more different: Taiwan is struggling to safeguard its democracy while Kim and his minions seek to ensure the survival of a dictatorial Stalinist state.
Seeking to counter Beijing's tolerance of North Korea's nuclear tests, Washington could tacitly permit Taiwan to do everything necessary to consolidate its democracy short of outwardly assuming a new name and a new flag.
This would constitute the most effective -- and noble -- approach to compelling Beijing to clamp down on Kim's nuclear follies.
It would be noble because for once, Washington would be putting Bush's doctrine of spreading democracy to practice in this neck of the woods.
Nevertheless, two things might have to occur before Washington would even contemplate giving tacit approval to Taiwanese moves toward independence.
First, the US must overcome its lingering fear that Taiwan's government might recklessly proclaim the nation's formal independence.
This issue has now transformed into a much-exploited psychological barrier standing in the way of Taiwan's democratization.
Second, the nation's deterrence capabilities must be enlarged and upgraded, a subject American Institute in Taiwan Director Stephen Young touched on in talk regarding the arms bill. Without this, the independence card remains only a bluff.
In the meantime, Washington could at least implement a long-term policy to facilitate Taiwan's participation in international organizations and activities for which statehood is not a prerequisite, a watered-down measure recommended by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in this year's annual report to the US Congress to counter Beijing's unremitting attempts to isolate Taiwan.
Huang Jei-hsuan
California
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