Strategists from both the Republican and Democratic parties in the US estimate the next presidential election in 2008 could cost each nominee US$500 million -- far more than a program that grants campaign funds can afford.
As a result, the next presidential campaign could mark the first time in 30 years that the Democratic and Republican nominees turn down the Presidential Election Campaign Fund's millions in both the primary and the general elections.
Under current rules, no one can take the public money without agreeing to strict spending restrictions -- giving campaigns an incentive to raise private funding to avoid being outspent by competitors.
"The public financing system was a great system, but it's broke," said Steve Elmendorf, the deputy campaign manager for Democratic Senator John Kerry when he ran for president in 2004.
"There's not enough money in it anymore. It's highly unlikely that any candidate in any party will stay in the public funding system," Elmendorf said.
US President George W. Bush declined the public money in the 2000 Republican primaries, when he was a first-time candidate and did so again in 2004, when he sought re-election. Democrats Howard Dean and John Kerry made the same choice in 2004.
Still, Bush and Kerry each accepted US$74.5 million from the fund to run their general election campaigns. For 2008, the amount could reach US$85 million per nominee.
If the major party candidates decline the general election funds in two years, they in effect would kill one of the chief election overhauls in campaign funding caused by the 1970s Watergate scandal.
The fund, which is expected to have about US$200 million by the end of next year, still would help pay for party presidential nominating conventions and assist primary candidates who do not raise large amounts of money.
More than ever, the first cut in the presidential sweepstakes will not result from the early contests of 2008, but from candidates' ability to stockpile huge amounts of money next year. That means potential candidates will ramp up their fundraising far sooner than they ever have in the past.
"The 2008 presidential election is going to be the Wild West," said Michael Toner, Republican chairman of the Federal Election Commission. "Upward of US$500 million is the likely goal of presidential fundraising per candidate."
So far, the best test of potential candidates' fundraising is the political action committees they have formed to probe the political environment and seed the landscape with donations. That money cannot be transferred into their election accounts.
Of Republicans considering a run, the four whose PACs have raised the most money are Senators John McCain and Bill Frist, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
At the top of the Democratic money list are former Virginia governor Mark Warner, Kerry, and senators Hillary Rodham Clinton, Evan Bayh and Barack Obama.
Clinton stands out above the rest.
As of Aug. 23, she also had US$22 million in her Senate campaign fund. She can transfer this money to directly fund her presidential contest.
No one represents the crossroads of presidential ambition and campaign finance activism more than McCain. His name is synonymous with tough election laws that have banned parties from collecting unrestricted and unlimited amounts of money.
But McCain is among those prepared to forgo the public financing system in 2008, according to strategists working with him.
He caused a stir this summer when he did not sign on as one of the congressional supporters of legislation that would overhaul the system.
The measure would triple the amount available to candidates during state primaries and eliminate the state spending limits. It also would offer more money to candidates whose opponents chose to decline the money and raise more on their own.
In an interview, McCain said he supported the measure and said that if it passed he would live by the new rules.
Campaign strategists and campaign finance analysts say they can imagine the new crop of presidential candidates concluding that the entire government handout is not worth the trouble.
"Anybody who takes federal funding will do so at their own peril because they will be dramatically outspent," said Tom Rath, a Republican National Committee member.
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