For 20 years the world's whales have mostly been left alone by man. Norway, Iceland and Japan, together with some indigenous groups, have been allowed to hunt a few thousand each year on the basis of scientific research, but the global free-for-all that decimated populations in all oceans for more than 100 years ended in 1986 on a wave of revulsion at the way they were killed and concern that stocks would never recover.
That might be about to change. About 35 pro-whaling countries, some of which have no coastline or history of whaling, are expected to gain control of the 66-member International Whaling Commission (IWC), the body which governs the industry.
In a triumph of intensive lobbying led by Japan, they are likely to dismantle the laws that protect whales and prepare the way for the eventual full resumption of commercial whaling.
To the horror of more than 150 large conservation organizations worldwide, the anti-whaling countries led by Britain, New Zealand, Australia and the US, say there is little that can now be done diplomatically to prevent the takeover by pro-whalers at the IWC meeting in St Kitts later this month.
"On paper they certainly now have a majority. I do not think the anti-whalers can hold the line," said Leah Garces, campaigns director of the World Society for the Protection of Animals, on behalf of anti-whaling groups worldwide.
"We could now go back to the 1970s when whales were unprotected throughout the world. This is critical," she said.
"The best we now think is possible is a tie in St Kitts. It looks very serious. We think it will be bloody," said a British official close to the talks.
Campaign
It has emerged that following a narrow defeat last year at the IWC's meeting in South Korea, Japan went to remarkable lengths to avoid defeat in St Kitts. Last month it convened a secret meeting in Tokyo of pro-whaling countries, including Norway, to prepare tactics and to ensure that many small countries, which traditionally hesitate to go to IWC meetings because of the cost, travel this year to the Caribbean.
Japan is also known to have increased aid to countries such as Belize, Mali, Togo, Gambia and others which have joined the IWC recently but who have so far not voted.
Earlier this year it pledged more than US$1 million to the Pacific island of Tuvalu, a pro-whaling IWC member, and has reached similar deals with Nauru and Kiribati and other desperately poor countries in the Pacific. Last week it is believed to have offered a large aid package to other Pacific countries. It has also invited the heads of state of seven African countries and eight Caribbean and central American countries to visit Tokyo in the last year. All are expected to vote with Japan at St Kitts.
At least US$300 million was given last year to Antigua, Dominica, Grenada, Panama, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and St Kitts and Nevis. Much of the aid has been ostensibly to develop their fishing industries, but Japan traditionally stresses that whales are responsible for low fish catches.
A Japanese government official, who asked not to be named, denied that Tokyo had negotiated aid packages at the meeting last month but admitted there had been discussions of "logistics," such as how to ensure that poorer pro-whaling countries showed up in St Kitts.
British diplomats said last night that they feared they had lost the battle to secure more anti-whaling votes.
New Zealand's conservation minister, Chris Carter, last month toured the Pacific, visiting the Solomons, Kiribati and Nauru requesting them to change their mind, but was rebuffed.
"It looks increasingly likely that the pro-whaling nations will achieve a majority on the commission for the first time," Carter said.
Changes
"At the moment we will take anyone," said a British diplomat close to the talks. "We have been singularly unsuccessful in the Caribbean. The Gambia might think twice if it was pointed out that their tourists might not like the fact that they are going to vote with whalers, but it's not looking good."
Anti-whaling countries now expect Japan to select the body's next chairman and vice-chairman and to make key procedural changes such as the introduction of secret ballots.
An immediate return to commercial whaling, which would require 75 percent of the votes, is unlikely for five years, said a British government official.
"The first steps of the pro-whaling groups will be to disband the IWC's conservation committee. It will then overturn the commission's formal condemnation of Japan's scientific whaling program, which exploits the loophole in the moratorium to hunt for whales," one observer said.
The Japanese foreign ministry official said he was unaware of any proposal by Tokyo to abolish the conservation committee.
Even though commercial whaling could be technically possible within a few years, there is now little demand for the meat. Japan's meat from expeditions ends up in restaurants and supermarkets, and there are plans to start selling it cheaply to schools and hospitals.
Norway traditionally has not been able to sell all the whale meat it gets from its hunt and sends some to Japan.
Junichi Sato, campaign director of Greenpeace Japan, conceded that a pro-whaling coup at the IWC would be "a disaster." He said the introduction of secret ballots would enable smaller countries, particularly Caribbean islands, to vote with Japan on every issue without fear of alienating the US, another major aid donor.
"It would certainly lead to more votes for Japan," he said.
Chinese state-owned companies COSCO Shipping Corporation and China Merchants have a 30 percent stake in Kaohsiung Port’s Kao Ming Container Terminal (Terminal No. 6) and COSCO leases Berths 65 and 66. It is extremely dangerous to allow Chinese companies or state-owned companies to operate critical infrastructure. Deterrence theorists are familiar with the concepts of deterrence “by punishment” and “by denial.” Deterrence by punishment threatens an aggressor with prohibitive costs (like retaliation or sanctions) that outweigh the benefits of their action, while deterrence by denial aims to make an attack so difficult that it becomes pointless. Elbridge Colby, currently serving as the Under
The Ministry of the Interior on Thursday last week said it ordered Internet service providers to block access to Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu (小紅書, also known as RedNote in English) for a year, citing security risks and more than 1,700 alleged fraud cases on the platform since last year. The order took effect immediately, abruptly affecting more than 3 million users in Taiwan, and sparked discussions among politicians, online influencers and the public. The platform is often described as China’s version of Instagram or Pinterest, combining visual social media with e-commerce, and its users are predominantly young urban women,
Most Hong Kongers ignored the elections for its Legislative Council (LegCo) in 2021 and did so once again on Sunday. Unlike in 2021, moderate democrats who pledged their allegiance to Beijing were absent from the ballots this year. The electoral system overhaul is apparent revenge by Beijing for the democracy movement. On Sunday, the Hong Kong “patriots-only” election of the LegCo had a record-low turnout in the five geographical constituencies, with only 1.3 million people casting their ballots on the only seats that most Hong Kongers are eligible to vote for. Blank and invalid votes were up 50 percent from the previous
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi lit a fuse the moment she declared that trouble for Taiwan means trouble for Japan. Beijing roared, Tokyo braced and like a plot twist nobody expected that early in the story, US President Donald Trump suddenly picked up the phone to talk to her. For a man who normally prefers to keep Asia guessing, the move itself was striking. What followed was even more intriguing. No one outside the room knows the exact phrasing, the tone or the diplomatic eyebrow raises exchanged, but the broad takeaway circulating among people familiar with the call was this: Trump did