The year-end county commissioner elections should primarily be a rivalry between the two largest political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). But, recently, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has nominated its own candidates.
The TSU is not seeking to win at the polls, but rather aims to prove to the DPP that it still exists and should not be ignored. This will give it room to bargain with the DPP, and also serve as preparation for the legislative elections in 2007, where it risks being obliterated by the "single-member district" legislative electoral system that will come into effect at that time.
Lee Hsien-jen (
He suggested that the TSU might want to alter its tactics, since the party would eventually have to deal with China rather than isolate itself from cross-strait exchanges.
I believe that the prospect of the "single-member district" system is forcing the TSU to become more moderate, as the system will be slanted against more radical candidates, but I wonder whether this is the right way for the TSU to escape from its current predicament.
The TSU has an interesting history. It was founded by former president Lee Teng-hui (
By drawing off KMT members of the localization faction, it was intended to weaken the KMT and help the DPP. Its stance on Taiwan's independence was between that of the DPP and the KMT, in other words, it was originally less radical than the DPP.
The establishment of the party coincided with the announcement of President Chen Shui-bian's (
As a result, the DPP was losing appeal, and faced combined pressure from the failure of its new "middle road" and its indifferent administrative record.
In the run up to last year's presidential elections, the TSU was able to come to its aid with its "Alliance to Campaign for the Rectification of the Name of Taiwan," and the "228 Hand-in-Hand Rally" and other campaigns to promote Taiwanese consciousness, helping to avert a DPP defeat.
From the perspective of its history, we can see that the TSU is faced with a dilemma. If it waters down its independence platform, it will lose its appeal, but if it becomes more radical, it will outpace many of its supporters.
But whatever the circumstance, to weaken its pro-independence position as a means of winning votes is unrealistic. For a small party like the TSU, to water down its platform will simply make its grassroots supporters wonder what distinguishes it from the DPP, which it would be more advantageous to support.
For those who have always supported the DPP, they will feel that, as the TSU has admitted it was mistaken, their decision not to shift their support to the TSU was the right decision.
In fact, we can cay that the TSU made the same mistake that Chen did when he announced his new "middle road" as a ploy to appeal to appeal to the mainstream public in Taipei.
In the end, not only will the TSU fail to win more support, but could endanger its own existence. Some of its members may transfer their support to a more radical party, as former DPP members transferred to the TSU, and though the probability is not as high, it is still a possibility.
It will be difficult for the TSU to deal with the threat posed by the "single-member district," but its current strategies are misguided. We will have to see what they can do to escape this predicament while keeping their ideals intact.
Lin Cho-shui is a Democratic Progressive Party legislator.
TRANSLATED BY LIN YA-TI
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