The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) held a televised campaign presentation last Saturday as part of the run-up to its chairmanship election. Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) spent about an hour attacking the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and expressing their views. But for issues that are truly relevant to the election, only the party's assets and the ethnic issue were mentioned.
For the KMT's party assets, Ma suggested respecting the judiciary, while Wang suggested protecting the assets with the blue camp's majority in the legislature. As for the ethnic issue, Ma said that he was conceived in Taiwan, delivered in Hong Kong and raised back in Taiwan. Therefore, if he won the chairmanship, the KMT would not become a party only for Mainlanders. Wang said that he opposed ethnic divisions and accused the DPP of aggravating the ethnic divide.
On the surface, Wang enjoys an advantage since he is backed by most of the blue camp's legislators and the KMT's Central Standing Committee members, who have numerous "vote captains" across the nation. He also claims to respect KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), saying that he would not have run for the post if Lien ran for re-election. But Ma has not shown unwavering support for Lien or protecting the party's assets. Obviously, it was natural for Lien to ally himself with Wang.
Most importantly, if Wang is elected, he will be willing to take over everything passed on to him by Lien. As for Ma, who has a "Teflon man" reputation, it is hard to predict whether he would do so. The KMT does not have a healthy internal accounting system. Even a god could not figure out the details of its accounts. Under such circumstances, Lien would certainly prefer Wang to Ma. His secret assistance to Wang through party affairs can be expected.
Indeed, lawmakers and Central Standing Committee members have many vote captains. But whether they will help Wang is questionable, because it is difficult to transfer their support to him. The power of Lien's administrative system is also questionable, as it is difficult to force party members to vote for Wang. Thus, the key lies in the factors that truly influence the election results -- the ethnic issue and the candidates' images.
Although Lien is a banshan, (Taiwanese with mainland background), he has been supported by the Mainlanders, leading Wang to believe that he will also gain their support by strictly following Lien's line. But their situations are quite different. The Mainlanders are clear that after the democratization of Taiwan, they may lose their power if they do not "use the Taiwanese to restrain the Taiwanese," and Lien is their best tool. From his appointment as chairman in 2000 to last year's presidential election, they consolidated themselves to support Lien.
But the Mainlanders only support Lien when there is no competition from other Mainlanders. The 2000 presidential election was an example of this. At that time, almost all Mainlander leaders supported Lien while grass-roots Mainlanders supported James Soong (宋楚瑜) -- because Soong is a "pure" Mainlander, and Lien is only half.
Wang is facing the same problem today. If no candidate has close Mainlander ties, then he can win their support. But since Ma does, it is impossible for Wang to gain the Mainlanders' support.
The Taiwanese people are able to support Mainlander candidates. But only a few Mainlanders are able to support Taiwanese candidates. Obviously, the July 16 election will be unfavorable to Wang, unless Taiwanese can generate a sense of crisis in the face of the united Mainlanders.
Chen Mao-hsiung is a professor in the department of electrical engineering at National Sun Yat-sen University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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