Sixty-two percent of Dutch voters followed 55 percent of French voters in voting against the EU constitution. Advocates of the constitutional treaty feel anxious that these "no" votes may have started a domino effect that will eventually kill it. What does this debacle tell us?
Since the euro was brought into being in 2002, it has often been a target of criticism, regardless of whether its exchange rate against other currencies was strong or weak. Despite their promise to maintain stable commodity prices, the 12 euro nations have all suffered price fluctuation and inflation. When the euro was introduced, its weak exchange rate was lambasted by opponents of a single European currency. Although the euro has become stronger, it is of no use at all to most people who do not consume commodities abroad, nor buy good imported from the US.
After the enlargement of the EU to include 10 Eastern European nations this year, the union's policies to balance scarcity and abundance in its financial policies and agricultural subsidies have changed significantly. French farmers, who used to benefit from the EU, haven't stopped complaining, as the expansion will create much tougher competition, not least with farmers from Poland.
Not only has the problem with these 10 states not yet been resolved, but poorer nations, such as Bulgaria and Romania, are scheduled for EU membership in 2007 and 2008. On top of that, Germany's ruling Social Democratic Party is advocating Turkey, with a population of more than 70 million people, as a candidate for EU membership. This has also made some EU citizens extremely uneasy, as they feel that the current level of prosperity may be compromised by less affluent nations.
Integration and assimilation have long been the principles guiding immigration policies in Europe, which emphasizes ethnic and religious diversity as well as respect for immigrant cultures. In recent years the religious divisions in Europe have deepened. As a result, France and Germany have no choice but to adopt policies restricting the use of religious clothing and symbols to help integrate students of many faiths and fight discrimination.
Incidents such as the murder of Dutch film director Theo van Gogh as a result of his film about abused women in Islamic countries boost the public's suspicions of further EU integration.
If the EU constitution were to be ratified, it would cause considerable concern that the European welfare state might fall apart. Thus, welfare systems would be put under pressure as a result of the EU constitution's spirit of emphasizing diversity and free competition.
In the current situation of sluggish economy caused by an influx of cheap labor as a result of globalization, the departure of domestic business and the large-scale reduction of career opportunities and welfare measures, doors are being opened to competitors, which will further threaten EU nations. This may lead to a greater unwillingness among people in EU nations to listen to the highfaluting ideas of their leaders.
The US reaction is also worth noting. There is some speculation that, as the US dreads seeing the EU's power rivaling its own, it may even take pleasure from the current crisis in Europe. But actually the opposite is true. The US is often vexed at the divergent policies of EU members and would vastly prefer to work with an integrated and consistent EU, with whom it can cooperate more effectively.
The EU constitution may simply have been sacrificed to over-hasty policymaking, or it may be hinting that the EU as reached its territorial limits.
Wu Chieh-hsiang is an assistant professor in the Graduate School of Esthetics and Arts at Nanhua University.
TRANSLATED BY LIN YA-TI
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