It has been obvious to Canberra watchers for several months that there is one issue on which conservative Prime Minister John Howard doesn't see eye-to-eye with US President George W Bush. And that is the US willingness to go to war with China, if need be, to protect the independence of Taiwan.
Canberra's view is that China will inevitably become capable of equalling or surpassing the US in economic strength and that a conflict would have disastrous and long term historic consequences for Australia.
Washington's view is China is a clear and emerging threat to the dominant power status of the US, and that it must be contained, by diplomacy, by trade or even by armed conflict.
To that end, the issue most likely to bring China and the US into conflict in any form is what Beijing calls the renegade state of Taiwan.
The re-election of President Chen Shui-bian (
This caused Beijing to rush through an "Anti-Secession" Law authorizing the invasion of the democratic country should that occur.
The Anti-Secession Law significantly raised the risk of a confrontation between China and the US, neither of whom are accustomed to blinking when their authority is challenged.
As the potential flash point became more obvious late last year, the Australian government began to remind the world that its ANZUS treaty with the US obliges Washington and Canberra to "consult" rather than start shooting should Bush pursue a military option in the event that Beijing invaded Taiwan.
The treaty has been the foundation of the Australian alignment with the US since the Korean conflict and underpinned the country's involvement in the Vietnam War, its support for the US campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan and its recently upgraded presence in Iraq as part of the "Coalition of the Willing."
But the messages from Canberra were couched in vague terms, with both Howard and Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer qualifying their comments by saying they wouldn't be drawn into detailed discussion about "hypothetical" future events.
That vagueness has been replaced by more precise language in recent days, just before Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono made a state visit to the Australian capital.
Shortly before Yudhoyono was due in Canberra, Howard delivered a set piece speech to a foreign policy forum claiming the role of "an anchor of stability and peace in the region."
In the speech, simultaneously distributed to key media in the Asia-Pacific hemisphere, Howard said: "Australia does not believe there is anything inevitable about escalating strategic competition between China and the US."
"We see ourselves as having a role in continually identifying, and advocating to each, the shared strategic interests these great powers have in regional peace and security," he said.
Howard needs Indonesia's support for such a role both regionally and in the UN. But the Indonesian president was unexpectedly delayed for several days by the serious earthquake on Nias island near the part of Sumatra already struggling with the aftermath of the Dec. 26 tsunami.
During this hold-up, Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who is making his own visit to Canberra in the middle of this month, gave a scathing critique of Howard's record as Bush's "deputy sheriff" in the region.
"We are inclined to believe that Australia is not really centering on Asia but has more concern with reflecting the views expressed by the United States," Bedawi said.
Bedawi's stance could signal opposition to inviting Australia to attend an ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur later this year, which Canberra sees as crucial to its credibility as an honest broker between China and the US.
That meeting will work further than ever toward creating a vast free trade area stretching from China to India and possibly Pakistan.
While Canberra sees it as essential for Australia to gain membership of this rapidly evolving grouping, the US commentary on its emergence is largely hostile, and focused on the power the grouping would give to China.
Once in Canberra, the Indonesian president threw himself behind the Australian cause, something unimaginable before Canberra dispatched a massive and continuing relief effort to Aceh, the epicenter of the tsunami.
"Indonesia is looking south for the first time," Yudhoyono said. "We see a confident, dynamic, multicultural Australia. It is important for this Australia to be fully engaged in Southeast Asia and I stress Indonesia's support for Australia to join the East Asia summit this year."
Hugh White, the director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said Australia's improved stature in East Asia presented a critical opportunity to avert a potentially serious situation arising between China and the US.
"Many Americans assume China is an adversary. China bears much of the blame for fostering these attitudes. And we have a clear message to convey, that the US should abandon that assumption lest it become self-fulfilling," he said.
"China should not be treated as an overgrown rogue state whose interests can be ignored, and the US needs to recognize there can be no peace in Asia without its co-operation," he said.
"The US should help China find a place in the international system that satisfies its legitimate aspirations, while China needs to accept that the US will -- and should -- remain a decisive power in the Western Pacific," White said.
Should Australia succeed in its mission, Canberra observers are wondering how it will patch up the rift it appears to have inspired between Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim state, and Malaysia, the most prosperous Muslim state in East Asia.
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