The terrorists' Ramadan offensive escalated last weekend, inviting martial law in Iraq and our (the US') counterattack to oust the occupiers of Fallujah. A pitched battle where firepower is decisive is a loser for guerrilla fighters. Iraq will then proceed to elections, the UN's unhelpful Secretary-General Kofi Annan notwithstanding.
Thus the public side of the Bush administration's internal transition -- that unnamed 80 days of relief, regeneration and reaching-out between re-election and second inauguration -- will be overshadowed during what we hope will be climactic fighting.
As soon as it ends, expect intense inside jockeying and outside speculation as the president begins to reshuffle his deck and recast some of his characters to keep campaign promises. Unlike Nixon after his landslide re-election, Bush will make no demand for mass resignations (luckily, I got mine in and made it out the door just before Watergate broke). Nor is a sudden exodus in store.
But that will not silence the Great Mentioner. You know how some people go through life basking in the glory of having been "mentioned for" some high post? My old colleague in Times columny, Russ Baker, conjured the oracle: The Great Mentioner. Today that crystal ball is in my court.
The first slot eagerly anticipated to be open by the glum 48 percent of voters is secretary of defense. They will be disappointed anew. Donald Rumsfeld should remain as secretary of defense at least until the backbone of the insurgency is broken, and until his reshaping of our military has taken hold under Marine General Peter Pace, to become Joint Chiefs chairman next fall. Rumsfeld's deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, is likely to become SecDef unless he is moved into the national security adviser's job.
Which is currently held by Condi Rice, a frequent mentionee for the top slot at State now filled by Colin Powell. But Colin, who knows how dreary a book tour can be, may not be as ready to bail out as most Atlanticist pragmaticists like to think.
With Middle East progress possible with the replacement of Yasser Arafat, and with the leaders of the permanent members of the Security Council eager to establish rapport with the re-empowered US president, the job of secretary of state may be far less frustrating. On a competitive level: If you were Powell, would you want to surrender the Bush foreign-policy field to your bureaucratic rival, Rumsfeld?
In the terror war, a new job will be created atop the intelligence world during the lame-duck session: Czar of All Spooks, though stripped of the too-powerful budgetary control the 9/11 commission wanted. Porter Goss, the new CIA chief, has not run an organization larger than a Congressional committee staff, and as management gurus say, "people who have run something are better running things than people who have not." National intelligence director? Here's mentioning the shockingly awesome retired general Tommy Franks.
With moralism redeemed, John Ashcroft can confidently return home. Representative Chris Cox of California, a savvy former White House counsel, is mentionable for attorney general, and that state could use another high-profile Republican. Another prospect is Ted Olson, former solicitor general, unless he is to be Bush's first nominee to the Supreme Court. Then there are the two Larrys: Larry Thompson, Ashcroft's former deputy, and Laurence Silberman, senior Court of Appeals judge now co-chairing an intelligence commission (unless he gets the czarship I've given General Franks).
At Treasury, John Snow will get a huge new tax reform rolling, perhaps with a bipartisan commission headed by the former senators who pulled off the amazing 1986 tax bill, Bill Bradley and Bob Packwood. In the Treasury wings are Bill Donaldson, after he averts potential disaster in the huge hedge-fund world, and Steve Friedman.
Legacy Project No. 1 is providing Social Security for the post-boomer generation. Needed are a couple of centrist Democrats who know their stuff on this. They are Louisiana's John Breaux, just retired from the Senate, and Charles Stenholm of Texas, just ousted from the House.
And while I'm on heartland Democrats, one mention of a 2008 bumper sticker: Keep Your Eye on Evan Bayh.
As strategic tensions escalate across the vast Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has emerged as more than a potential flashpoint. It is the fulcrum upon which the credibility of the evolving American-led strategy of integrated deterrence now rests. How the US and regional powers like Japan respond to Taiwan’s defense, and how credible the deterrent against Chinese aggression proves to be, will profoundly shape the Indo-Pacific security architecture for years to come. A successful defense of Taiwan through strengthened deterrence in the Indo-Pacific would enhance the credibility of the US-led alliance system and underpin America’s global preeminence, while a failure of integrated deterrence would
It is being said every second day: The ongoing recall campaign in Taiwan — where citizens are trying to collect enough signatures to trigger re-elections for a number of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators — is orchestrated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), or even President William Lai (賴清德) himself. The KMT makes the claim, and foreign media and analysts repeat it. However, they never show any proof — because there is not any. It is alarming how easily academics, journalists and experts toss around claims that amount to accusing a democratic government of conspiracy — without a shred of evidence. These
The Executive Yuan recently revised a page of its Web site on ethnic groups in Taiwan, replacing the term “Han” (漢族) with “the rest of the population.” The page, which was updated on March 24, describes the composition of Taiwan’s registered households as indigenous (2.5 percent), foreign origin (1.2 percent) and the rest of the population (96.2 percent). The change was picked up by a social media user and amplified by local media, sparking heated discussion over the weekend. The pan-blue and pro-China camp called it a politically motivated desinicization attempt to obscure the Han Chinese ethnicity of most Taiwanese.
On Wednesday last week, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) asserting the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) territorial claim over Taiwan effective 1945, predicated upon instruments such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. The article further contended that this de jure and de facto status was subsequently reaffirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly issued a statement categorically repudiating these assertions. In addition to the reasons put forward by the ministry, I believe that China’s assertions are open to questions in international
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