US Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to discuss Taiwan's arms procurement plan with China when visiting Beijing next week. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Zhang Qiyue (
But if we study the situation carefully, it's clear that the US only says that it expects to have a chance to respond to the issue regarding the proposed arms deal. In other words, Washington's position will be "passive." This stance is completely different from taking the initiative to discuss it, and the pan-blue camp is in fact creating trouble for itself by sensationalizing the issue.
When the US signed the Aug. 17, 1982 Communique with China in 1982, the former proposed "Six Assurances" to Taiwan, which clearly state that "the US would not consult with China in advance before making decisions about US arms sales to Taiwan." If Washington were to take the initiative to discuss arms sales with Beijing, it would break its commitment to help safeguard Taiwan, and so depart from its Taiwan policy. The situation would then be quite serious.
However, we should not be surprised if Washington merely responds to the issue raised by Beijing. China has always taken the initiative in bringing up the issue during talks in the past. The US has always responded by upholding the contents of the three joint communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). They have even gone farther, saying that Beijing's expanding ballistic missile deployment against Taiwan will not improve cross-strait relations.
When meeting with US President George W. Bush, then Central Military Commission chairman Jiang Zemin (
In any talks on the cross-strait situation by senior officials of the US and China, the Chinese are bound to restate the "one China" principle, and the US, in addition to restating their adherence to the three joint communiques and the TRA, will at most add that the US does not support Taiwan independence.
Chen offered an olive branch to China during his Double Ten National Day speech, and the US regards that speech and Chen's inauguration address on May 20 as being creative and constructive. Because of this, it is likely that the US will encourage cross-strait talks, suggesting to Beijing that this is a good opportunity to resume negotiations. But the US is unlikely to become directly involved in any such negotiations.
Until now, the greatest obstacle to cross-strait talks has been Beijing's insistence that Taiwan accept the "one China" principle as a precondition. If the US can convince China to drop this condition and engage in negotiations on terms of equality and mutual respect, then the two sides may be able to move ahead with talks on economic and cultural matters. Only by developing a degree of mutual trust in this way will we be able to chart a course toward cross-strait security.
Powell's decision to visit Japan, China and South Korea on the eve of the US election is clearly aimed at achieving various diplomatic and domestic political goals. Although Taiwan needs to keep a close eye on Sino-US relations, and take precautions against the US sacrificing Taiwan to win China's cooperation for its own advantage, we should watch developments calmly, avoiding reading too much into any given situation and frightening ourselves as a result.
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