Now that former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) has retired as chairman of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Central Military Commission, President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) hold on power is now official and comprehensive. The advent of the Hu era brings with it enormous risks and challenges, for most of China's advantages have already been exploited in the course of the Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) and Jiang eras; now, old problems are piling up.
There are also many new problems. The result is a massive "deficit" of advantages. How Hu will deal with these accumulated difficulties and how he will find a balance between the spontaneous changes taking place in society and the need to maintain the primacy of the CCP will be the most important questions of his presidency.
The biggest difference between this era and those of Deng and Jiang is that the strategy of using market expansion to obscure social problems and maintain stability through the creation of wealth is now past its use-by date. Political and social reform can no longer be avoided. For Hu, this situation is both a challenge and an opportunity. Now that supreme power over the party, the government and the military is concentrated in his hands, the way he will be judged by history will depend entirely on how he decides to act.
There is no reason to be too optimistic about what Hu will do. From his track record we can see that he is a typical product of the CCP's training, and his thinking is still firmly confined within those limits. As the head of the CCP, his interest lies in serving the interests of the party rather than those of the people. He will rise or fall depending on the fortunes of the party, and this is what he will focus on. He is unlikely to hurt the party to benefit the people. In his current situation he is unlikely to act as the "supreme emperor" in the manner of Jiang, but he is still constrained by the demands of the party, and his position is not yet fully consolidated. He is still some distance away from being able to act as he pleases, so it is still difficult for us to know what he really thinks. All we are able to do is watch and wait.
But at the same time, there is no reason to be too pessimistic either. Politicians are constrained and guided by circumstances, so even if we cannot see in Hu any clear signs of democratic tendencies, China's regressive political system has already shown itself to be a major impediment to progress, and dealing with it will necessarily be Hu's first priority. Looking at his track record, he has at least left room for reform, as reflected by his statements at the Fourth Plenum of the 16th CCP Central Committee, when he spoke of making development the party's first priority and of pursuing "scientific rule, democratic rule and rule by law."
When the development of
a society makes claims on its rulers, they are eventually forced to bow to these demands, willing or not. We don't have to be too pessimistic because there is no reason to be so about the direction in which society is developing. If the pressure exerted on Hu by the public is great enough, then it is possible that he may end up standing on the right side of the judgement of history.
From a broader perspective, whether Jiang is out or Hu is in is not the most important question. The two decisive factors in China's future are, firstly, the development of its politics, economy and society; and secondly, the interaction of various sociopolitical forces. It is still uncertain what effects these will have. What is certain is that the Hu era will be one of massive change for China.
Wang Dan was a student leader during the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations.
TRANSLATED BY Ian Bartholomew
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