"Haima First Ever Typhoon to Develop on Taiwan": This rather eye-catching headline says much about the complex meteorological phenomena we have been seeing of late, as well as weather forecasters' failure to predict the severity of the storm that brewed on the evening of September 10. However, blame for the resultant damage cannot be placed entirely on the meteorologists, for the central and local disaster response was also too slow, and it is on these factors that disaster prevention and disaster relief systems depend.
In recent years we have seen certain abnormalities in climatic conditions, a spectacular example being Tropical Cyclone Catarina that hit the SE coast of Brazil on March 28. The low temperatures of the South Atlantic are not favorable to the development of hurricanes, and no such storm had developed in this area in the years since weather records were first kept. There was even disagreement between the Brazilian Weather Bureau and the US National Meteorogical Center (NMC) as to whether Catarina was actually a cyclone at all. Needless to say, it took the local authorities and population completely by surprise, and the damage was considerable.
Of course, Haima is nothing compared with this record-breaking phenomenon. Yet estimates used for flood prevention based on the last one or two centuries of hydrological engineering have been all but invalidated by the recent unprecedented rainfall levels.
The "thousand-year storm" that fell on Burlington, New Jersey, on July 12 and 13 this year was called that because the NMC estimated this was the fiercest storm to hit the area in that amount of time. The dams of local reservoirs burst, unable to cope with the volume of water, and thousands of residents were evacuated. Waterways overflowed, drainage pipes proved inadequate and people were forced to flee their homes. Nevertheless, only 330mm of rain fell in over 12 hours there, compared to the 290mm that drenched Kungli in North Taiwan on September 10 within a quarter of that time. Even so, in Burlington this was still considered the worst storm for a thousand years.
Then there's the financial damage. On July 11 this year a thunderstorm bearing huge hailstones hit Edmonton, Canada, causing serious damage to roads, buildings and vehicles. The flooding resulted in over US$100m of damage, possibly a new record for the amount of financial damage caused there within the space of one day. This would be nothing new for Taiwan, but it's a lesson the local residents will never forget.
Records are being broken by meteorological phenomena the world over, and weather forecasters are finding it difficult to keep pace. However, this is not entirely their responsibility. It is up to everyone to change their attitude and be more aware of the dangers if we are to be more prepared.
Reducing the amount of damage these events cause should be our first priority. For example, both central and local disaster response centers have long been set up to run in the event of weather warnings. And given the risk of erroneous predictions, wouldn't it be advisable to employ more meteorological specialists who could analyze predictions and make more accurate forecasts when the rainy season hits? Disaster response should also be improved to reduce the amount of damage incurred.
In recent years, the catchphrase in more developed countries has been "Be surprised, but be prepared." With precedents being broken left, right and center, people may well be surprised. However, the important thing is not to be afraid of being surprised. We have to increase our level of awareness, improve our ability to respond and make radical changes to basic infrastructure. Not only is it of little help to point fingers after the event, it is also insulting to the disaster victims.
Liu Chung-ming is the director of the Global Change Research Center at National Taiwan University.
TRANSLATED BY PAUL COOPER
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