As Poland prepares to enter the EU May 1, many still believe the real political watershed took place 15 years ago.
Unprecedented in the communist bloc, the Round Table talks brought together the communist regime and Solidarity opposition for two months of negotiations which ended April 5, 1989, securing basic democratic freedoms unheard of behind the Iron Curtain.
The promise of partially democratic elections, free trade unions and economic reforms proved fundamental change could come peacefully, without bloodshed. The Round Table talks also set in motion a series of events which saw communism throughout eastern Europe wither and die.
Polish commentators argue domestic politics have been running in circles ever since, with public frustration causing power to swing like a pendulum from parties in the post-Solidarity camp to the post-communist camp and back again.
Despite the lack of smooth sailing, analysts note supra-party agreement on the strategic foreign policy goals of membership of the NATO defence alliance, which Poland joined in 1999, and EU entry, charted and kept Poland's reform drive largely on course.
Pawel Wronski, a respected columnist for the country's liberal Gazeta Wyborcza daily, recently likened the domestic political scene to a "backed-up sink," desperately in need of plumbing.
The power swing between the ex-communist and post-Solidarity camps, coupled with their blame-game dynamic and intransigence, has thwarted bold policy moves by either side, Wronski argues.
"This lead to the collapse of the political class," he says.
Wronski observes the political vacuum is now being filled by an unpredictable group formally independent of both the ex-communists and post-Solidarity parties, long on fiery rhetoric, but painfully short on realistic policy.
Recent opinion polls attest to the meteoric rise of the populist Samoobrona (Self Defence) farmer's party, headed by renegade politician Andrzej Lepper. In March the party lead the field with nearly 30 percent support, making it altogether plausible for it to take top spot in a general election which could arrive as soon as August.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Leszek Miller and his ex-communist Democratic Left Alliance have hit political rock-bottom, scoring the lowest public confidence ratings of any government since 1989.
Scandal
Miller and his government has been plagued by record 21 percent unemployment and a barrage of high-profile corruption and conflict of interest scandals that prompted the premier to announce his resign for the day after his country joins the EU.
On the foreign policy front, however, most analysts agree Poland has progressed by leaps and bounds since 1989.
After the 1999 strategic watershed which saw the former Warsaw Pact country be among the first three new members of NATO, last year proved a year when Poland made waves on the world stage.
From carving out a significant role in Iraq, to holding-up EU plans to complete the bloc's first constitution, Poland made a name for itself as a small but feisty player in the international arena, a loyal friend of the US and Europe's stubborn new enfant terrible.
Over the year prior to its EU entry, Poland drew the ire of Germany and France -- it's most powerful future EU partners -- by flying in the face of their non-interventionist policy on Iraq.
Instead, it offered staunch political and military support for the US-led war and occupation. While this ruffled feathers in Berlin and Paris, Washington made a show of warmth.
Poland was awarded a significant post-war role as commander of Iraq's south-central occupation zone and Polish firms were promised the opportunity to win lucrative Iraq reconstruction contracts.
Such a role came as a surprise, a shock even, to its anti-war European neighbors. The US-friendly attitude prompted critics and pundits in Poland and abroad to dub it the "Trojan Horse," or in a more sarcastic vein, the "Trojan Donkey" of the US inside Europe.
However, in this year's policy statement, Polish Foreign Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz insisted Poland had "no dilemma in having to choose between America and Europe."
He also noted that due in part to Poland's position on Iraq, "Polish-American relations recently attained unprecedented stature." This, in turn, he said was a source of his country's "enhanced prestige, also among our European partners."
But in light of the recent violence and chaos plaguing Iraq -- particularly the Polish-controlled zone -- Poland's exposure there has also made it vulnerable. Analysts note that it now carries not only the risk of troop casualties, but the real threat of al-Qaeda orchestrated terror attacks at home.
The promise of financial reward for Polish firms has also grown pale as any significant reconstruction effort in Iraq has been thwarted by the country's continued volatility.
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