Following the contested presidential election, the perception of unpredictability and unreliability in Taiwan seems certain to continue in the lead-up to crucial legislative elections at the end of this year and likely in the foreseeable future.
It is important to understand Washington's view and further strategy for Taiwan to avoid being marginalized in US policy.
The administration of US President George W. Bush has anticipated that a strong US posture toward Beijing and support for Taiwan would deter China from taking aggressive action against Taiwan.
However, it seems to me that the current Chinese policy-makers are quite different from those of previous decades. The new leaders since mid-2001 have endeavored to avoid serious confrontation and conflict with the US administration. China has attempted to broaden the common ground between the two powers.
Although the Taiwanese leader has denied that he used to be engaged in provocative rhetoric and political maneuvering regarding sensitive cross-strait issues, by asserting that he won over 50 percent support, President Chen shui-bian (陳水扁) seems to be less likely to abolish his stated agenda that seeks a new constitution and other steps toward greater independence.
To maintain the status quo, which optimizes US interests while dealing with China, is the US' expectation of Taiwan.
To avoid being marginalized in US policy, Taiwan should take advantage of the US' imperative to avoid a new conflict at a time of major US strategic preoccupation elsewhere, as in Iraq. And this may also provide a sufficient justification for a US policy adjustment in favor of Taipei in the future.
Han Pei-chun
Washington, District of Columbia
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