As Taiwan's most important international ally, the US will be closely watched in the days and weeks ahead for its reaction to Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) narrow electoral victory and the referendum's rejection. It seems unlikely, however, that Washington will significantly alter its approach to Taiwan. Many in Washington are pleased by the rejection of both referendum questions, though some may be worried by a second Chen term for reasons that become clear after a closer look at Washington's cross-strait calculus.
Allegations about corruption, economic management, manipulation of the election and all other domestic matters aside, the issue Washington most cared about in Saturday's elections were those relating to cross-strait tensions. The lens through which Washington views this issue cannot be easily characterized as pro-Taipei or pro-Beijing. Indeed, in the US there are advocates on all sides of the issue. Many members of the US Democratic Party take a poor view of China's human rights abuses and take a positive view of Taiwan's economic development and its democratic process, although that is being brought into question. Republicans, eyeing the tremendous upside of China's economy and emerging consumer market, tend to increasingly look toward Beijing, while also keeping a close watch on growing Chinese military power.
At the same time, the battle lines on this issue are not drawn solely along partisan lines. In fact, there seems to be a consensus, although a weak one, which encompasses Republicans and Democrats alike, that the best
US policy is to apply pressure on both sides of the Strait to maintain the status quo. As such, US President George W. Bush's recent rebuke of Chen's referendum, rather than being a sign of a pro-China sentiment in Washington, was more an indication of the administration's commitment to averting any possibility of a violent resolution to the issue.
While the US officially supports China's "one country, two systems" policy, its de facto approach is to advocate a peaceful resolution to the issue. Any action, from either Taiwan or China, that is viewed as upsetting the status quo would be opposed by Washington, and this is true regardless of whether there
is a second Republican Bush administration or a new Democratic John Kerry administration come January next year.
The bottom line is that while the US is bound by law to
militarily defend Taiwan, military involvement is the least desirable option to US policymakers. Actions to provoke such a conflict from Taipei or Beijing are viewed as a threat to US national security. While some view the current cross-strait situation as unstable, most feel that while tense, the status quo is moving toward a peaceful resolution. US policy focuses on reassuring both sides that all options for the future remain on the table and that any other action is unnecessary.
In this context, it becomes clear why the referendum's rejection was greeted with a sigh of relief by most in Washington. It also becomes clear why Chen's narrow and disputed victory is worrisome. Many in the US hope that Chen will keep his promise of not abandoning any opportunity to negotiate with Beijing. The key question is how Chen will handle the referendum's rejection. Much depends on whether he takes the will of the electorate, as expressed in the referendum, to heart, or whether he pursues destabilizing policies despite the results.
In his victory speech, Chen thanked KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
Joel Meyer is program assistant at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
When US budget carrier Southwest Airlines last week announced a new partnership with China Airlines, Southwest’s social media were filled with comments from travelers excited by the new opportunity to visit China. Of course, China Airlines is not based in China, but in Taiwan, and the new partnership connects Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport with 30 cities across the US. At a time when China is increasing efforts on all fronts to falsely label Taiwan as “China” in all arenas, Taiwan does itself no favors by having its flagship carrier named China Airlines. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is eager to jump at
The muting of the line “I’m from Taiwan” (我台灣來欸), sung in Hoklo (commonly known as Taiwanese), during a performance at the closing ceremony of the World Masters Games in New Taipei City on May 31 has sparked a public outcry. The lyric from the well-known song All Eyes on Me (世界都看見) — originally written and performed by Taiwanese hip-hop group Nine One One (玖壹壹) — was muted twice, while the subtitles on the screen showed an alternate line, “we come here together” (阮作伙來欸), which was not sung. The song, performed at the ceremony by a cheerleading group, was the theme
Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised eyebrows recently when he declared the era of American unipolarity over. He described America’s unrivaled dominance of the international system as an anomaly that was created by the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War. Now, he observed, the United States was returning to a more multipolar world where there are great powers in different parts of the planet. He pointed to China and Russia, as well as “rogue states like Iran and North Korea” as examples of countries the United States must contend with. This all begs the question:
Liberals have wasted no time in pointing to Karol Nawrocki’s lack of qualifications for his new job as president of Poland. He has never previously held political office. He won by the narrowest of margins, with 50.9 percent of the vote. However, Nawrocki possesses the one qualification that many national populists value above all other: a taste for physical strength laced with violence. Nawrocki is a former boxer who still likes to go a few rounds. He is also such an enthusiastic soccer supporter that he reportedly got the logos of his two favorite teams — Chelsea and Lechia Gdansk —
RSS