The presidential election is in its final countdown phase, and after the "228 Hand-in-Hand Rally" most opinion polls, as expected, show that approval ratings for the blue and green camps are drawing closer, with the difference even falling within the margin of statistical error.
With less than two weeks to go, the pan-blue ticket of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and the pan-green ticket of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) are running neck and neck in polls. The inclination of undecided voters, which constitute around 20 percent of the electorate, will be the most significant factor in the election.
The morale of the pan-green camp is high at the moment. In addition to consolidating its traditional supporters, the success of the 228 rally has helped it to expand its voter base. The core strategy is to integrate the 228 rally, the referendum and support for Chen based on the growing self-awareness among the people, and to attempt to equate these three things with the concepts of "loving Taiwan" and "democracy." Lien and Soong are being positioned by the green camp as opponents of these concepts.
Making efforts to magnify such distinctions, the green camp intends to break down barriers between voters and secure majority support in a duel.
The green camp recently published half-page advertisements in newspapers with the slogan: "We joined hands on Feb. 28. Let's vote in the referendum on March 20." This is an attempt to expand the collective identity and awareness of the 2 million people who attended the 228 rally into identification with the referendum and with Chen.
The green camp certainly hopes that the 228 enthusiasm continues while it drums up support with the referendum issue and cut-throat battles at the grass-roots level in order to gain the lead in the race.
However, fugitive tycoon Chen Yu-hao's (陳由豪) accusations about political donations have gained widespread media coverage, which has diminished the 228 rally's follow-up effect. Further observation is required to know which -- the 228 rally or Chen Yu-hao's accusations -- will have the greater influence.
On the other hand, the blue camp is unlikely to sit idly waiting for the death knell. As their lead shrinks, anxiety mounts among their supporters. After the 228 rally the wide gap between the two tickets has all but disappeared. But what worries pan-blue supporters is that Lien and Soong not only lack a consistent and clear discourse on the referendum and other issues, but also that they appear too passive in their campaign strategies.
With just 10 days left until the election, the question of whether the blue camp can put forth a refreshing appeal to attract undecided voters is the key to whether it will regain the lead.
According to various opinion polls, a great majority of the undecided are "independent voters" with no specific political affiliations. Those who have clear political affiliations but have not yet decided which candidate to vote for are very few.
Moreover, the older the voters are, the more likely they are to be undecided. As for education, most undecided voters have a poor education background. The agriculture-based counties in the center and south also have a higher percentage of undecided voters, compared with metropolitan cities and counties in the north. The majority of undecided voters are women.
In the time that is left, the most practical campaign strategy would be for the green and blue camps to engage each other at the grassroots level in the agriculture-based counties in the center and south of the country.
Wang Yeh-lih is a professor of political science at Tunghai University.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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