Mon, Mar 01, 2004 page9

• Democracy takes a back seat in Iran

  • By Paul Taylor / REUTERS
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  It may sound paradoxical but the victory of conservatives in Iran's widely decried parliamentary election might just open the way for a rapprochement between the Islamic Republic and the US after 25 years of enmity.

  Washington and the EU both criticized the poll after an unelected hardline clerical body barred 2,500 mainly reformist candidates, including 80 sitting lawmakers, from standing, guaranteeing a conservative victory.

  But Western diplomats acknowledge that promoting democracy is not their top priority with Iran.

  They need a united government able to deliver results on an array of pressing concerns, such as Iran's nuclear program, its stance on detained al-Qaeda Islamic militants, its role in Iraq and Afghanistan and support for groups hostile to Israel.

  Iranian and Western officials say the fierce power struggle between reformists backing President Mohammad Khatami and hardliners under the mantle of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has hampered progress in recent years.

  Khatami was able to ease tensions with Iran's neighbors and boost relations with European countries, projecting a gentler and more democratic image of Iran. But he lacked the authority to strike a grand bargain with Washington.

  "My forecast is that the strategy of detente in foreign relations should be continued, maybe faster than before because the system has more trust in the new people in parliament," influential conservative commentator Amir Mohebian said.

  He said Iran had seen some positive signals from the US but not yet sufficient to move forward.

  The conservative winners of last week's election say they are prepared to deal with the US if it makes the first move by recognizing the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

  Ahmad Tavakoli, one of the leaders of the main conservative list, said the US kept setting preconditions and using an accusatory tone. It should start by freeing billions of dollars in Iranian assets frozen since 1980, he said.

  Mohebian believes a grand bargain based on mutual interest and mutual benefit is possible between Tehran and Washington.

  Both countries share an interest in stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan, where US diplomats acknowledge privately Iran has played a generally constructive role.

  Diplomats say exploratory talks, denied by both sides, have been going on for months in New York and Geneva.

  The key point man is Iran's UN ambassador Mohammad Javad Zarif, a US-educated political scientist whose connections in Tehran straddle all factions.

  Zarif was finally allowed to visit Washington last month and a group of congressional staff was invited to Iran, although the trip was later postponed by Iran.

  A senior Western diplomat said the contacts were making little headway as neither party had a real negotiating mandate.

  Both sides must first resolve difficult internal debates over whether to restore ties, and neither is in a hurry because of the domestic political calendar.

  The US is unlikely to take a strategic decision on whether to seek a Libya-style accommodation with Iran or tighten its policy of isolation until after the US presidential election in November, said Judith Yaphe, an expert on Iran and Iraq at Washington's National Defense University.

  And Iran's conservatives may well wait until they have completed their reconquest of all the institutions of power in a presidential election in May 2005 before weighing a deal.

  In both countries there are determined adversaries of any end to 25 years of confrontation.

  A senior Iranian official said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei believes the Islamic Republic needs an ugly American enemy, but several of his advisers advocate rapprochement.

  In Washington, influential neo-conservatives such as Defense Policy Advisory Board member Richard Perle, virulently oppose any dealing with this Iranian government and advocate a policy of regime change, not by force but by subversion.

  Tehran diplomats say neo-conservative suggestions that the Islamic system is on the brink of collapse are wishful thinking.

  On the Iranian side, there is a widespread failure to grasp the political realities of Washington, which leads to what the diplomats call an inflated view of Iran's bargaining position.

  Mahmoud Sariolghalam, professor of international relations at Shahid Beheshti National University, says some top Iranians believe they can develop far-reaching relations with the EU without dealing with the US.

  "The Europeans can go only so far without US normalization," he said in an interview.
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