Tue, Jan 13, 2004 page8

• Editorial: Status quo has gone out of balance

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  President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) plan to hold a referendum -- Taiwan's first ever -- at the same time as the presidential election on March 20 has drawn a great deal of international attention. Viewing it as a scourge, China has gone all out to block the referendum. US President George W. Bush and Japan have displayed a "no, no" attitude toward any referendum that may change the status quo. Some opposition parties in Taiwan are also using international pressure to attack Chen.

  In fact, those exerting internal and external pressure are like a pack of wolves howling at the moon because they cannot touch it.

  The moon is the status quo.

  "Changing the status quo" is the phrase that those exerting pressure care most about. But what is the status quo?

  The US has made the maintenance of the status quo its top priority and opposed any unilateral attempt to change the status quo. The US demands that Taiwan avoid provoking China or making any move toward independence; it also demands that China not use military force against Taiwan.

  If we look at this policy as a set of scales, we can see that the scales have never been level to begin with.

  There is also the problem that balance is dynamic -- it never stays put for very long.

  US policy is based on the three Sino-US communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act. But the scales have tipped gradually in China's favor in the long evolution of the communiques, highlighting the US' tendency toward imbalance in its cross-strait policy.

  China has risen as a power in international politics. Using its political, diplomatic and economic power, China has become a leading force in Asia. For Taiwan, China's threat is very deep, as are its attempts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically.

  On the military front, China has continued to build its military power and has aimed almost 500 ballistic missiles at Taiwan.

  In economics, China has continued to suck away Taiwanese capital and vitality, causing Taiwan's economy to shrink.

  The cross-strait center line has been squeezing in on Taiwan, on the political, military and economic fronts. Ignoring this shift and demanding the maintenance of the status quo is as impractical as marking the place on your ship's hull where your sword dropped into the sea, in the hope of retrieving the sword.

  The US hopes the two sides will move toward dialogue, but Beijing has set the "one China" condition for any dialogue -- basically demanding Taiwan's surrender before sitting down at the negotiation table. This is not fair. The US demands that Chen keep his "five noes" promise but pays no heed to the premise of his promise -- that China must not threaten Taiwan militarily.

  Now China is not only making such threats, but also views any referendum or rewriting of Taiwan's Constitution as provocative. Even a Taiwanese complaint about Chinese missiles has become provocative. This is even more unfair.

  China has every reason to maintain a status quo that contains so many things that are absurd and unfair to Taiwan. Under this status quo, China can increase its missile deployments against Taiwan, block Taiwan's entry into international organizations and force other countries to accept Beijing's unilateral definition of provocation.

  Taiwan's March 20 referendum is not going to change the status quo. It is merely a loud objection against what is unfair in the status quo so that people both at home and abroad may pay heed.
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