The pan-blue camp has made efforts to explain its cross-strait policy over the past few days, but the ambiguities and contradictions in their position have not eased the public's suspicions. In the past such ambiguity has been used to maintain stability and the status quo, which appealed to moderate voters. However, considering the changing international scene and changing views of moderate voters, the question is: Has this strategy of ambiguity become outdated?
A quick survey of the top five pan-blue figures' public statements reveals at least five different views on cross-strait issues. On Wednesday, at a press conference held to give Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (
With advanced degrees in political science, Lien of course knows that there is a fundamental problem with his view. Internationally -- just as the People's Republic of China is the name of the government representing China -- the ROC is supposed to be the name of a government. The only question is which country.
This was of course disappointing, since only a day earlier, Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (
Neither Lien nor Soong explained how their latest statements on cross-strait policy fit in with Soong's prior statement that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are both under a "one China roof," and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou's (
To worsen the confusion, Lien then said that if he is elected, Taiwan will immediately start a dialogue with China about direct links. How can that be done when China insists that such dialogues can only be conducted if Taiwan accepts the "one China" principle?
The pan-blues must realize that moderate voters -- the group to which they are obviously trying to appeal -- are not permanently stagnant. Their views are evolving with the emergence of new values and greater demands for rights and freedoms in Taiwanese society. A case in point is the referendum right, which only a few years ago was still just a proposal by radical independence advocates, but which has now become commonly accepted.
Finally, it is also imperative to realize that, in the past, when China was not nearly the economic and military power it is today, Taiwan might have been able to prosper in the international community with its ambiguous status. But as China gains more power against Taiwan, Taiwan has less room to breathe. Can we continue to delude ourselves that the status quo can be maintained by such an ambiguous cross-strait policy?
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Beijing’s diplomatic tightening with Jakarta is not an isolated episode; it is a piece of a long-term strategy that realigns the prices of choices across the Indo-Pacific. The principle is simple. There is no need to impose an alliance if one can make a given trajectory convenient and the alternative costly. By tying Indonesia’s modernization to capital, technology and logistics corridors, and by obtaining in public the reaffirmation of the “one China” principle, Beijing builds a constraint that can be activated tomorrow on sensitive issues. The most sensitive is Taiwan. If we look at systemic constraints, the question is not whether