On Oct. 3, the Straits Times of Singapore reported that China plans to stage a large-scale military exercise codenamed "Swift East Sea 03" along the coast of Fujian Province around Taiwan's Double Ten Day. Around 100,000 troops will participate in the exercise, the report said.
One can't help feeling surprised by the assertion, which came after so many reports saying that Beijing would stay calm and low-key in order to avoid inadvertently helping the Democratic Progressive Party in next year's election.
Some pro-unification media in Taiwan were euphoric after hearing the report. After failing to confirm the report with the Ministry of National Defense and the US government, however, they took the trouble to explain how the Chinese military exercise will be different from previous ones. They even invited some "China experts" to explain how Beijing has no choice but to hold war games because of its unhappiness with the Taiwan-independence movement.
It is unclear what effect another military exercise will have on the pro-independence movement after so many of China's verbal and military threats have failed. For this reason, far fewer Taiwanese media groups are dancing to the news this time. However, because the Straits Times is a serious newspaper and because the report sounded plausible, it is still worth analyzing, whether the information is true or not. But one should look at what unusual political developments in Beijing have led sources to leak this information.
The Chinese Communist Party is holding the third plenary session of its Central Standing Committee on Oct. 11, about the same time as the reported date of the military exercise. This makes one wonder whether the exercise is aimed at Taiwan or at that meeting in Beijing. This meeting is by no means a simple affair.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) initially wanted to speak on party reforms at the party's anniversary celebrations on July 1, but he was stopped by former president Jiang Zemin (江澤民), now chairman of the Central Military Commission. As a result, Hu could only give an empty talk about Jiang's "Three Represents."
Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao (
The Xinhua News Agency, however, reported that after a meeting of the party's Politburo on Sept. 29, Hu presided over the eighth collective learning session of the Politburo and discussed political reforms. A few days before that, the Outlook Weekly, another CCP mouthpiece, had published an article by a professor from the Central Party School, who was one of Hu's advisors. The article said the Politburo will answer to the Central Standing Committee and accept its supervision in the future.
This clearly indicates that Hu is emulating the late Soviet president Nikita Kruschev: he is using a majority in the party's central committee to deal with the conservative-dominated Politburo. It looks like there had been some kind of incident that allowed Hu to get even with Jiang. Perhaps he found a weak spot in the corruption of Jiang's Shanghai gang.
Hu was scheduled to attend the UN General Assembly in New York last month. The trip was allegedly canceled because of objections from Jiang, but Hu probably did not dare travel because of the power struggles.
What's even more surprising was that Jiang did not show up at China's National Day banquet on Sept. 30, which all nine Central Standing Committee members of the Politburo attended. The next day, ie, National Day, Jiang showed up, surrounded by bodyguards, in Tiananmen Square. He also greeted tourists to highlight his existence.
The state-run media, however, did not report his appearance. This seems to indicate that his appearance had not been approved by the party center. This is a rare incident in the party's history.
Is the disclosure of a planned military exercise an attempt by Jiang to put pressure on Hu? Jiang can accuse Hu of leaning to the right for keeping cool about Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. Once, the military is mobilized, however, there could always be a major unexpected incident.
The development of the situation in China deserves the utmost attention.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Francis Huang
The Chinese government on March 29 sent shock waves through the Tibetan Buddhist community by announcing the untimely death of one of its most revered spiritual figures, Hungkar Dorje Rinpoche. His sudden passing in Vietnam raised widespread suspicion and concern among his followers, who demanded an investigation. International human rights organization Human Rights Watch joined their call and urged a thorough investigation into his death, highlighting the potential involvement of the Chinese government. At just 56 years old, Rinpoche was influential not only as a spiritual leader, but also for his steadfast efforts to preserve and promote Tibetan identity and cultural
Former minister of culture Lung Ying-tai (龍應台) has long wielded influence through the power of words. Her articles once served as a moral compass for a society in transition. However, as her April 1 guest article in the New York Times, “The Clock Is Ticking for Taiwan,” makes all too clear, even celebrated prose can mislead when romanticism clouds political judgement. Lung crafts a narrative that is less an analysis of Taiwan’s geopolitical reality than an exercise in wistful nostalgia. As political scientists and international relations academics, we believe it is crucial to correct the misconceptions embedded in her article,
Sung Chien-liang (宋建樑), the leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) efforts to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Kun-cheng (李坤城), caused a national outrage and drew diplomatic condemnation on Tuesday after he arrived at the New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office dressed in a Nazi uniform. Sung performed a Nazi salute and carried a copy of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf as he arrived to be questioned over allegations of signature forgery in the recall petition. The KMT’s response to the incident has shown a striking lack of contrition and decency. Rather than apologizing and distancing itself from Sung’s actions,
US President Trump weighed into the state of America’s semiconductor manufacturing when he declared, “They [Taiwan] stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit.” At a prior White House event President Trump hosted TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家), head of the world’s largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, to announce a commitment to invest US$100 billion in America. The president then shifted his previously critical rhetoric on Taiwan and put off tariffs on its chips. Now we learn that the Trump Administration is conducting a “trade investigation” on semiconductors which
RSS