The media often use the term "blue north and green south" (
If we look at the percentage of votes in previous elections or opinion polls on the president, we can see that the DPP doesn't necessarily enjoy the absolute advantage over other parties in the south. According to a poll released by the China Times on Aug. 6, a joint ticket of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Taipei County Commissioner Su Chen-chang (蘇貞昌) for next year's presidential election received only 2 percent more support in the southern counties of Yunlin, Chiayi, and Tainan than that of KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) (39 percent versus 37 percent). In Kaohsiung and Pingtung, there was not much difference in support between a Chen-Su ticket and the Lien-Soong bid (34 percent versus 35 percent). In the other southern counties, Chen-Su fell behind their rivals by more than 10 percent.
The "blue north and green south" phenomenon exists only in terms of the ruling party of each county. In terms of the percentage of votes or survey results, the DPP does not necessarily have an upper hand in the south.
Knowing this, why did neither of the camps point this out? Why did they blindly follow the media?
For the DPP, it is at a disadvantage in the election campaign. If it admits to its supporters that its strength in southern Taiwan puts it in only a decent position there and that it still has catching up to do in the north, it's like telling them that next year's election is a lost cause.
For the DPP, exaggerating its advantage in the south to strengthen the impression of "blue north and green south" makes sense. First, by making a show of strength in the south, the party can secure votes there while seeking support in the north. Second, describing the south as green-camp territory can cause a cluster effect, making local cliques feel that they belong to the green camp, thus forsaking the KMT. Third, together with the campaign theme of "one country on each side of the Strait," it will promote Taiwanese awareness among southern voters and help the party gain support.
The pan-blue camp of course knows that's how the DPP calculates the campaign. But without administrative resources at its disposal, there is not much it can do to win over southerners. In the south, hearts have to be won before votes.
Besides, most of Lien and Soong's supporters won't vote for them because of their personal qualities but because of their anti-Chen sentiment. Most of these supporters live in central and northern Taiwan. As the green camp boasts of its strength in the south, a sense of crisis can be stimulated among the anti-Chen voters in the north, thus solidifying the support for Lien and Soong.
Polls by the media over the past year proved such a trend. Although Chen saw a mild increase in support in the south, support for Lien and Soong in the north was solid, staying 8 percent ahead. As long as there is no fundamental change, Lien and Soong can have the lead secure. There is no point in the blue camp dispelling the myth since it is happy to see the president continue to irritate his opponents.
Despite the fact the DPP hasn't got an upper hand south of the Chuoshui River (
Jan Shou-jung is a legislative assistant.
TRANSLATED BY JENNIE SHIH
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