As the next presidential election draws near, the cross-strait relationship has become a central issue for both the ruling and opposition parties. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) first outlined a three-phase scenario to realize direct links by the end of next year. The strategy is aimed at convincing voters that China will make room for reconciliation once he is re-elected and allow for progress on direct air links.
To counter criticism of its ambiguous position on cross-strait relations, the blue camp is reportedly attempting to rationalize its "one China, with each side making its own interpretation" (
Conventional wisdom holds that foreign policy doesn't matter in domestic elections. Unless there is a war or some threat from abroad, pundits maintain that voters don't care about what's happening overseas. But this argument overlooks the key role that foreign policy plays in earning politicians brownie points, especially as foreign policy in Taiwan is always intertwined with cross-strait policy.
While the blue camp and some business groups have been pressuring the DPP for an early opening of direct links, the government took the initiative by presenting concrete steps to implement such links.
Although this has been portrayed as an election ploy, the ruling DPP has at least provided voters with a clear vision and timetable for cross-strait economic and trade normalization. However, the extent to which the plan would work lies largely in whether China would accept Chen's plan and resume dialogue.
For the KMT and the PFP, the "one China" myth has become an Achilles' heel since Beijing sabotaged Taiwan's bid for observer status at the World Health Organization. To avoid being labeled China's "comrade," the blue camp has to defuse the impact of the "one China" principle on its own campaign and skillfully de-link itself from Beijing. That explains why both KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) have been silent on the unification issue.
Beijing's response will determine how Taiwan uses cross-strait policy. Optimists say it is time for China to recognize political reality. That is, Beijing must accept the fact that regardless of whoever wins the presidential election next March, the Taiwanese people are determined to safeguard their sovereignty.
Pessimists, however, argue that if Chen is re-elected, it would constitute a great challenge for Beijing and pose a huge threat to cross-strait peace. A bellicose reaction to Taiwan's new leadership is expected as China tries to downgrade Chen. This approach may run the risk of deteriorating regional stability simply because Beijing cannot accept the results of a democratic election.
The conservative view, however, argues that since China is facing other controversial issues, such as the leadership succession and WTO compliance, Beijing will continue its wait-and-see approach with Chen. Changes in Taiwan's politics, in other words, will determine Beijing's policy toward Taipei. So conservatives consider, for example, whether the DPP's legislative election victory of last December and the rise of the TSU have offered some flexibility for Taipei in cross-strait relations.
It seems that Chen and his DPP have pursued the optimistic approach of dealing with China when it comes to opening direct links. As president, Chen must show his courage to break the ice with Beijing. The strategy deserves full support for it is in line with democratic principles.
For the pan-blue camp, instead of being vague on the cross-strait issue, it is imperative for Lien to speak loud and clear on what he sees as potential cross-strait solutions.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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