President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) announced that "one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait" will be his campaign theme for next year's presidential election. If that's what he wants to do, then we will witness an election about state sovereignty next year.
State sovereignty indeed does not present any urgency at the moment. Why does Chen want to make it his campaign theme? Well, his reasons may be one of the following. One, he believes that the agenda of state sovereignty can beat the pan-blue camp. Two, he intends to fool his enemy and interrupt their strategies by releasing false information before the election. Three, he wants to divert voters' focus from the economy, which is his administration's weakest point. But no matter which of the above is his true motive, his judgment has been seriously impaired.
Anyone who has been involved in election campaigns knows that the best campaign issues are the practical ones that are most relevant to most people. The UK's Conservative Party lost elections twice for that very reason. That is, when the Labour Party was discussing public affairs issues such as medical services during elections, the Conservatives were immersed in talk about the state sovereignty-related issue of the euro and the pound.
Besides, similar to product marketing, election marketing also emphasizes market segmentation. The purpose of segmentation is to highlight differences among camps. As Chen positions himself with the one-country-on-either-side stance, supposedly his opponents are known for an opposite stance -- either "one country on both sides" or against "one country on either side." However "one country on either side"of the strait is a reality. It is a reality that even hard-core supporters of "one China" cannot ignore despite their ultimate aspiration to reunify with China. Therefore Chen's campaign theme is unlikely to be differentiated from Lien's.
Since the "one country on either side" tune does not resonate with the majority of voters and it's not differentiated from his opponents', there will be only one reason left if Chen is determined to use the theme -- external factors that will help him to win the election. Namely, he wants to use the theme to irritate China. And when an agitated Beijing starts to threaten Chen or Taiwan with propaganda or military force, public opinion will be rallied in favor of Chen to show common support for defense. However, it is unethical for Chen to play such a risky "fringe policy" just to win the election. If it goes too far, he probably won't be able to handle the consequences and will lose the election.
It is the first time that the DPP is in power in Taiwan. When the presidential election arrives next year, naturally voters will examine the performance of the Chen administration over the past four years. Chen won't be able to avoid the examination. If voters let go of the opportunity to examine the DPP government and get carried away with Chen's one-country-on-either-side agenda, then they are either insane or totally stupid.
As a Chinese proverb goes, even the ugliest woman will meet her fiance's parents some day. So sooner or later Chen will need to show the public what he has done over the past four years. If there is not enough time for that, he'd better prepare his speeches to voters explaining why he hasn't done well and get ready to shoulder the blame and apologize.
If he is naive enough to think that state sovereignty would divert the focus of the campaign, he will be digging his own grave. Taiwanese voters are probably the smartest voters in the world as they go through at least one election every year. They know politicians' campaign tricks very well. There is no way that they'll rise to the bait easily.
Wang Chien-chuang is president of Journalist magazine. TRANSLATED BY JENNIE SHIH
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