Tue, Aug 19, 2003 page8

• Can Taiwan respond to change?

  • By Nat Bellocchi 白樂崎
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  The changing world order, with its emphasis on counterterrorism, and the ease with which weapons of mass destruction can not only be produced but transported across national boundaries, occupies overwhelming attention, especially in the US. Another important change in the new world order is China's participation in it. This is not based on its military strength -- which is growing, but not quite fully realized. China's size and location, as well as its permanent seat on the UN Security Council, however, carry it into the category of a major power.

  Something else is also at work in China. Though its economic reforms have strengthened the country, they also have put it into a dependency on the international system. In turn, in its own interest, China finds it a necessity to be an acceptable player in the world community. What is discouraging, however, when it comes to cross-strait relations, is that this newly-found, more responsible attitude toward the world community does not extend to its behavior on its relationship with Taiwan. Economics has brought China far in the international community, but its political sense remains in the past.

  The US, in any event, must increasingly work with China on global issues, whatever differences there are on other matters that may be occupying their bilateral attention. This more active relationship was generated by the war on terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Both countries have an interest in protecting themselves against these two threats, though the objectives may be somewhat different. The North Koreans have managed to push the two countries into a closer relationship even though there remains a fundamental distrust in what their ultimate objectives are.

  Though a second round of talks will soon begin, North Korea is unlikely to roll over and quickly come to some kind of agreement with the five other participating countries, all of which have different objectives in establishing a new relationship with it. Common sense suggests that in this period, when the six countries are edging toward negotiation, bilateral discussions between the US and China will increase substantially. And should negotiations begin, much more intense bilateral discussions between the six: the US, China, Russia, Japan, North Korea and South Korea, will inevitably result. It could in fact become a Northeast Pact (though that is opposed by the US) that covers considerably more substance than North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

  All of this should be of critical importance to Taiwan. Though it will not take part in any of these activities, clearly its interests could be deeply affected. What has been touted for many years is the assessment by China and Taiwan experts around the world that the most volatile flashpoint in East Asia was cross-strait differences between China and Taiwan. Now it is not, and another reason for keeping it cool. That makes a very big difference for Taiwan.

  There is, as usual, a very big difference in how each of the three cross-strait players are seen to be coping with this. In the US, the top level of decision makers in government and senior non-government experts who would at least stay current on the subject, are preoccupied with the Middle East or North Korea. That leaves the second level, where differences often exist, in charge on the cross-strait issue. While we know much less about China because of its politically closed system, there seems to be somewhat the same process taking place in that country. And in Taiwan, it is pre-election time and broad geopolitical issues are not a subject that catches the attention of voters.

  The US hasn't done badly, at least most of the time, in trying to balance sensitivities in cross-strait relations. Right at a time that the US is deeply involved with the PRC in developing a solution to the North Korean problem, the White House voiced concern about launching a referendum in Taiwan on the one hand, and made a public statement supporting the military report to Congress recently on the other. This latter in my view, was unusual given the history of the Executive Branch -- congressional differences as exemplified in the history of the Taiwan Relations Act, and of course, the expected PRC complaint.

  With China, there are also signs that cross-strait issues are not getting the same degree of attention at the highest level, despite its political importance. Sending high level officials to the US to get support for pressures on Taiwan regarding the referendum issue, as reported in the news, at almost the same time an even more senior official was in Washington to discuss North Korea, is an example. Whether it was orchestrated or not, whatever was accomplished by the visitors from Beijing, if anything, with regard to cross-strait matters was balanced by the public support of the White House on the Pentagon's annual military report to the Congress.

  Though it has no direct role, nonetheless, Taiwan doubtless is doing some deep thinking about the geopolitical changes that are occurring in Northeast Asia and how they will effect its interests. What can Taiwan offer if it has no vote and in most cases no participation in international agencies that can bring many needed programs to a crisis situation?

  Probably, a very large majority would like to see Taiwan as an independent entity doing its share directly in the international community. That will take a China that outgrows its antiquated view of sovereignty and feels confident enough, with its size and strength, to negotiate an agreement that will satisfy both sides. There are such agreements, but that notion is likely to be a fantasy for a long time.

  In the meantime, building a much larger non-governmental organization (NGO) community in Taiwan, willing and able to provide real help on a much larger scale in any area of crisis abroad, would be the most effective way of keeping not only its name well-known, but its willingness to do its share in the international community. Working together with NGOs from other countries does just that. Taiwan needs as many friends in the international community as it can get, and this is one important way of finding them.

  Nat Bellocchi is the former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and is now a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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