Previous studies of elections in Taiwan have given the impression that the supporters of the blue and green camps come from different classes: Pan-green supporters tend to be middle or lower class, farmers, workers, based in the south and ethnic Taiwanese originally from Fujian Province, elderly, or very young. Pan-blue backers tend to be from the middle or upper class, white-collar, based in northern Taiwan, middle-aged and mainlanders.
The impression is deepened when we see a lot more betel-nut chewers and slipper wearers in crowds waving green flags, while suits and leather shoes are typical of the crowds cheering for blue-camp candidates.
The "betel-nuts/slippers versus suits/leather shoes" observation was made by political scientist Wu Nei-teh (吳乃德), who made it a title of one of his research papers. He noticed that other than ethnic background, there is an implicit dimension of class dividing partisan support.
Taiwan's social flow is determined by educational opportunity. When mainlanders have better education achievement, the distinction of class is created be-tween the two ethnic groups. At that point, the ethnic divide is related to class and tends to be identical to the division of partisan support.
Economist Luo Ming-ching (駱明慶) inferred from census data that in the past when controlled enrollment in universities was in practice, male mainlanders were two to three times more likely to be admitted to universities than their local counterparts. The gap was even larger at National Taiwan University, where many green-camp political figures were educated. Evidently, educational opportunity has not been equal for different ethnic groups.
Education opportunity subsidized by a low tuition fee policy is not simply decided by exam results. It is also influenced by class and ethnic background.
We are not sure whether setting up a few more universities has bridged the education gap, since the gap presents a politically incorrect element long neglected in educational reforms.
The problem is that the corresponding dividing lines of class and ethnic background are not as clear-cut. Many confusing phenomena have arisen, especially after the DPP took power. In the name of improving the economy, DPP heavyweights are often seen in close contact with conglomerates and enterprises, as has been the case at several wed-dings. Social activists thus find that their comrades of old are not what they used to be.
Demonstrations are also different. They no longer aim to end military reviews, abolish bad laws, re-elect the legislature, vote for the president directly or push for democracy. Rather, they are composed more of social groups -- teachers, fishers, farmers or employees of state-run business-es. Students also take to the streets with concern about employment, subsidies and welfare. Apparently, recent demonstrations have broken with the model set by the thriving social movements in the 1980s.
The statement by the pan-blue camp that a "rich state" and a "poor state" exist concurrently and the announcement by social activists to form a "pan-purple" alliance indicate that Taiwan is entering a new stage where classes and political representatives will be shuffled. Obviously, class, replacing the old agenda of democracy, has become the new mainstream political agenda.
What force drives class politics? Is it a short-term campaign strategy or is it the urban middle class's anxiety under global pressure? What will be the political result -- a rearrangement for the blue and green camps? Rebirth of the idea of ethnic identity? Or just a war to safeguard vested interests? These questions present new challenges for political leaders.
Hsu Yung-ming is an assistant research fellow at the Sun Yat-Sen Institute for Social Sciences and Philosophy, Academia Sinica.
Translated by jennie shih
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