After extending the hand of peace to arch-foe Pakistan, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's planned follow-up visit to old-enemy China could redraw the diplomatic map of a region that is of acute interest to Washington after the Iraq war.
The major players -- India, China and Pakistan -- bristle with nuclear arms, and Vajpayee's peace plays may be aimed not only at ensuring a place in the history books for the elderly politician but reducing the risk of a nightmare conflict among longtime foes with weapons trained on India from north and west.
The shifts in bilateral ties among the trio as well as in their relationships with the US since the Cold War, plus a big nudge from the Sept. 11 attacks, are starting to alter dramatically diplomatic patterns unchanged for decades.
"Diplomacy is back in business in South Asia," wrote Washington-based South Asia expert Paula Newberg earlier this month.
If Vajpayee goes to China next month it will be the first such visit by an Indian prime minister in a decade and comes after Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji (
The visit would unsettle old China friend Pakistan, putting pressure on President Pervez Musharraf as he ponders Vajpayee's surprise offer last month to give peace a chance after the nuclear neighbors narrowly averted war last year.
"India is also interested in reducing the number of potential foes during this `war on terror,'" said Sanjay Ganguly, professor of Asian studies and government at the University of Texas in Austin. That is of concern to China, too, as it worries Islamic militants are slipping over the border from Pakistan and stirring resentment in its restive Muslim western region of Xinjiang.
"Simultaneously, Vajpayee may just be interested in seeing if he can, to any degree, wean China away from Pakistan," he said.
"This is a tall order given the long-standing relationship between those two states, China's misgivings about Islamic militancy in Xinjiang notwithstanding."
It may be a tall order, but not as tall as trying to resolve the territorial disputes that triggered a war between India and China in 1962. To this day, the two have failed to agree even on mapping out their border.
Vajpayee will make no progress there when he meets new Chinese leaders President Hu Jintao (
"The current pattern is to try to improve trade and political relationships. Territorial problems, nuclear issues are not going to get resolved," said Indian defense analyst Uday Bhaskar. "But symbolism in China acquires a certain substantive dimension."
One Chinese expert said the visit was more than symbolic. "Maintaining high-level political contact furthers understanding between these two big countries," said Sun Shihai, a South Asia expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
The two may have agreed to put such intractable disputes on the back burner while they confront issues of the day -- boosting trade, reducing military tensions and the consequent drain on budgets, and altering the balance of power in the region.
A rapidly prospering China and greater attention from the US are factors affecting that balance.
"I've always argued that it made more sense for India to normalize with Pakistan than China, separating the two by being nice to Pakistan. But it takes two to tango," said South Asia expert Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institute in Washington.
Vajpayee may feel that if Musharraf is not ready to take to the dance floor he should be looking to Beijing and Washington.
Signs of closer ties with Washington, underscored by recent limited joint military exercises, could strengthen India's hand in dealing with both Islamabad and Beijing -- and boost trade.
"A closer relationship with the United States makes India a bit more self-confident in dealing with China," said Ganguly, adding that Beijing had been rattled when India did not issue a knee-jerk criticism after Washington quit the anti-ballistic missile treaty in 2001.
"One of the goals of this visit to China in the context of steadily warming Indo-US relations is to disconcert General Musharraf," Ganguly said.
However, Asia expert Sheng Lijun of Singapore's Institute of South East Asian Studies warned that excessive reliance by either Washington or India on that relationship as a strategic counterpoint to the rapid rise of China could lead to quicksand.
"Each could be manipulated by the other," he said.
"China will not hurt relations with one country just because it develops relations with another," Sun said of friend Pakistan.
It wouldn't hurt if India could reduce the cost of patrolling its northern border with China while facing Pakistan to the west. "Defense spending is actually an issue," Ganguly said.
And at the very least a Vajpayee trip would stamp a seal on an improvement of ties with Beijing, which took a dive after India's 1998 nuclear tests, and could boost trade that is now a fraction of China's total but more significant for India.
"India is more concerned about the indicators of the Chinese economy than the Chinese military," Bhaskar said. "This is good in terms of the larger relationship direction that India should be charting -- to have a robust relationship with the two major economies of the US and China."
I came to Taiwan to pursue my degree thinking that Taiwanese are “friendly,” but I was welcomed by Taiwanese classmates laughing at my friend’s name, Maria (瑪莉亞). At the time, I could not understand why they were mocking the name of Jesus’ mother. Later, I learned that “Maria” had become a stereotype — a shorthand for Filipino migrant workers. That was because many Filipino women in Taiwan, especially those who became house helpers, happen to have that name. With the rapidly increasing number of foreigners coming to Taiwan to work or study, more Taiwanese are interacting, socializing and forming relationships with
Chinese social media influencer “Yaya in Taiwan” (亞亞在台灣), whose real name is Liu Zhenya (劉振亞), made statements advocating for “reunifying Taiwan [with China] through military force.” After verifying that Liu did indeed make such statements, the National Immigration Agency revoked her dependency-based residency permit. She must now either leave the country voluntarily or be deported. Operating your own page and becoming an influencer require a certain amount of support and user traffic. You must successfully gain approval for your views and attract an audience. Although Liu must leave the country, I cannot help but wonder how many more “Yayas” are still
Earlier signs suggest that US President Donald Trump’s policy on Taiwan is set to move in a more resolute direction, as his administration begins to take a tougher approach toward America’s main challenger at the global level, China. Despite its deepening economic woes, China continues to flex its muscles, including conducting provocative military drills off Taiwan, Australia and Vietnam recently. A recent Trump-signed memorandum on America’s investment policy was more about the China threat than about anything else. Singling out the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a foreign adversary directing investments in American companies to obtain cutting-edge technologies, it said
The recent termination of Tibetan-language broadcasts by Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) is a significant setback for Tibetans both in Tibet and across the global diaspora. The broadcasts have long served as a vital lifeline, providing uncensored news, cultural preservation and a sense of connection for a community often isolated by geopolitical realities. For Tibetans living under Chinese rule, access to independent information is severely restricted. The Chinese government tightly controls media and censors content that challenges its narrative. VOA and RFA broadcasts have been among the few sources of uncensored news available to Tibetans, offering insights
RSS