Japanese scholar Kenichi Ohmae recently predicted in his new book -- The Emergence of the United States of Chunghwa -- that Taiwan and China are likely to unify under a federal system in 2005 as a result of economic integration. Gordon Chang (
After visits by the two renowned China experts to Taiwan in early April, Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (
In fact, in view of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a dangerous risk still exists in today's China -- the risk of government inefficiency, a problem which is widespread in developing countries. In the face of globalization, a "borderless era," on which Ohmae places great stress, is beginning to take shape. A regional incident could become a significant international issue in an instant. A minor mistake made by an inefficient government could lead to a huge, global catastrophe.
In contrast, all the SARS patients in Taiwan have gradually recovered from the disease. The high quality of Taiwan's medical treatment is self-evident and has been much more successful than that in China or Hong Kong.
The nation is also about to export the "Taiwan experience" to the international community. The World Health Organization (WHO) may have to allow the country to join the organization for the sake of global SARS prevention work.
So, although Taiwan has been affected by the SARS outbreak, it has now become a true beneficiary of the crisis. This makes us realize that it's impossible to predict everything.
But international investment will not flood Taiwan just because of the way it handled this crisis, and foreign countries will not withdraw their investment from China overnight. Taiwanese businesspeople may still have to take China's market as the starting point on their path to globalization. Even if their investments in China are profitable, however, they should not take the Chinese market as both the starting point and the finishing point of the process of globalization. It's certainly OK for the government to remind us frequently about the risks in China. But it should never forget to carry out its own policy of "active opening, effective management" -- so that Taiwanese businesspeople in China can also have a chance to invest in Taiwan in the future.
Tu Jenn-hwa is a professor in the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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