Although US and British military forces are still carrying out attacks on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's army, key international organizations have already begun to consider Iraq's postwar reconstruction needs.
To make reconstruction meaningful, we must understand the complex conditions facing Iraq both inside and out. Iraq has always been governed by a minority class. Sunni Muslims, who constitute only 20 percent of the population, enjoy absolute superiority in terms of political power. Although southern Iraq's Shiite Muslims are a minority in the Arab world, they constitute a majority of the population in Iraq, where they have been politically repressed. The most important ethnic group in northern Iraq is the Kurds, who are Sunnis. Kurds are also scattered in Turkey, Syria, Iran and regions around the Black Sea.
Iraq's relations with its neighbors are highly volatile because of ethnic and religious disputes. Shiite Muslims are a majority in both Iran and Iraq, but Shiites hold power in Iran. Because the Islamic Revolution in Iran was perceived as a powerful summons to Iraq's Shiites, President Saddam Hussein launched a war against Iran, even going so far as to use chemical weapons in the later stages of the war to avoid a humiliating defeat.
Over a million people died in the eight years of the Iran-Iraq War. In the final stage of that war, Saddam's attention was diverted by Kurds within Iraq. In order to suppress them, he used mustard gas to attack two Kurdish towns, killing over 100,000 people. Media images of this atrocity, including one of a father who was holding a child when the gas suffocated them both, are still vividly etched in many people's minds.
After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Iraq and the Arab kingdoms in the Gulf region formed a bloc based on their common fear that the Iranian revolution would spread outside of Iran. In 1990, however, Saddam directed his military to occupy Kuwait and the two countries became mortal enemies.
Under the late president Hafez Assad, Syria was also controlled by an ethnic minority group and led by the Baath Party, and that government proved equally willing to use tactics like razing the dissident city of Hama with tanks and artillery for the sake of keeping power. However, Assad and Saddam were never able to cooperate because they both wished to be seen as leaders of the Arab world. Only after Assad passed away in 2000 did the enmity between the two countries begin to wane.
Iraq and Turkey are at odds over the issue of the Kurds. After the Gulf War which began in 1991, Kurdish refugees flowed into Turkey, but the Turkish military used planes and tanks to drive the refugees back into Iraq. When the US recently commenced hostilities against Iraq, Turkey once again arrayed troops on the border, and a new international crisis is now brewing there.
In light of this background, the reconstruction of Iraq's political and social order as well as its relations with neighboring countries will be a very difficult task. But if international society and the Arab countries face the problem squarely and handle it resolutely, this will be an opportunity to reshape the order of the Middle East. Much senseless killing can then be avoided and a modern Mesopotamian civilization can be established.
In order to achieve this goal, reconstruction work must encompass the following points:
First, deploy international peacekeeping troops in the regions of the north and south where Kurds and Shiites are concentrated to prevent violent retaliations between different ethnic groups.
Second, form a commission for political and social reconstruction, and invite respected ethnic, religious and village leaders to participate in discussions about political and social reconstruction.
Third, form a "consensus-style governing body" to let different ethnic and religious groups share administrative and legislative power, with influence being allotted in rough proportion to each group's population. Elections to form a legislature should also be held.
Fourth, organize the military and police forces aimed at maintaining Iraq's domestic security. The Kurds can keep a certain extent of autonomy and, at the same time, be allowed to have a share of the ruling power in Iraq so that their militia can be absorbed into the nation's military and police corps and thereby be relieved of their heavy weapons.
Fifth, regarding external relations, an urgent priority for the US and the UK is to deter Turkey from using any pretext to send its troops into Iraq. Otherwise, war between Turkish forces and Kurds as well as Kurdish-led terrorist activities might well result. Allowing Kurds to share power in the Iraqi regime might reduce tension in Turkey. International peacekeepers should be stationed on the Turkey-Iraq border.
Sixth, the new Iraqi government and Iran should sign a treaty, agreeing to designate the midline of the Shatt al Arab waterway as their national boundary, allowing deported Shiite elders to return home, and promising not to subvert each other's regimes.
Seventh, sign friendship treaties with all kingdoms in the Gulf region as well as Jordan and Syria and encourage the League of Arab States to accept the new Iraqi government.
To avoid the expansion of conflict and terrorist activities between Israel and Palestine, and to prevent fundamentalism from wreaking havoc on the Arab world as a result of US military actions, we can expect the US government to follow the post-Gulf War example by working with the UK and Spain to put forth a blueprint for peace in Israel and Palestine immediately after the war and demand that the two conduct conclusive peace talks.
In addition, the two should sign agreements to deal with Palestinian nationhood, the Israeli settlements, the status of Jerusalem, and border and security safeguards with the aim of establishing everlasting peace in the Middle East.
The people of Taiwan should show their benevolence, have a broad international vision, and make our voices heard for real world peace. We should make the international community understand that Taiwan's support of the US' anti-terrorism stance is for the sake of world peace.
Joseph Wu is deputy secretary-general to the president.
Translated by Ethan Harkness and Jackie Lin
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