UN Security Council members France, Germany, Russia and China all oppose a military attack by the US on Iraq because they believe weapons inspections are making progress and should be allowed to continue.
They also believe the UN shouldn't set too short a deadline for inspections to succeed. Even so, the US continues to build up its military forces in the Persian Gulf. Almost 300,000 soldiers have now been deployed near Iraq.
Add to these the aircraft carrier battle groups patrolling the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean in preparation for war, and we can clearly see the war clouds gathering over the Persian Gulf.
This is leading to a tense situation in which Iraq is rushing to prepare for a war.
The US is working hard to legitimize war and continues its relentless international diplomatic effort to win UN support for a military attack.
If the US does not gain the support of France, Germany, Russia and China, however, it may still use Iraq's non-compliance with UN resolution 1441, which demands its full disarmament, as justification for going to war.
A look at the overall development of the situation reveals that the US has not slowed its war preparations since its initial deployment of soldiers in the Persian Gulf late last year.
Iraqi cooperation with UN weapons inspectors has all along been adjusted depending on US military deployments.
This opportunistic manipulation of weapons inspectors, sometimes more intensive, sometimes less so, has finally prompted the US to increase its deployments in the Gulf, and made ousting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, disarming Iraq, and installing a US-friendly government the main military objectives.
But there are other important factors edging the US ever closer to war with Iraq.
For several months now, the US has been busy mobilizing the National Guard to strengthen its land warfare abilities; lobbying Congress to pass a war resolution; giving a lot of publicity to its deployments of combat units and various light and heavy weaponry in the Gulf; fighting to win the support of the Arab world; and leasing bases for the use of the US army.
The cost of all these measures is already considerable. If it were all suddenly to be called off and soldiers called back, now that the US is poised to strike, not only would the American public be greatly disappointed in the US administration -- which would damage President George W. Bush's chances of re-election -- but US supremacy and the nation's prestige would also be affected.
The US will therefore certainly wish at least to accomplish certain minimal strategic objectives that serve its national interest in order to meet domestic political expectations and to maintain its position as world leader.
Moreover, to legitimize its war on Iraq as a just war, the US will continue to fight for support in the UN Security Council and to weaken the council's anti-war lobby. It will also consider international opinion and domestic and foreign anti-war forces.
The desert areas of the Middle East are about to enter the extremely hot summer which makes land warfare with great armies difficult.
The highest guiding principle will therefore be the need for a quick war, and to reach the strategic objectives of the war in the most cost-effective manner, to incur the smallest possible loss, stabilize international oil prices in order to avoid global economic decline, minimize the negative factors that will follow and to maintain control of the development of the overall situation.
When the US starts fighting, it will first use large numbers of precision-guided weapons to destroy important Iraqi political and military command centers before deploying large numbers of aircraft to cut up the battlefield and separate Iraqi army units from each other.
It will also protect the 1,500 oil wells in Iraq from destruction. Once the US has achieved total military victory and Saddam's government has fallen, it will be able to install a US-friendly government and, in the process, acquire control of local oil production with all the further implications that will have for the international oil trade.
A war between the US and Iraq, which appears extremely imminent, will involve three factors which Taiwan should note.
First, has the US made any promises to China that will affect the interests of Taiwan in order to win Chinese support in the Security Council?
Second, the fluctuations in international oil prices that will result from the war will affect Taiwan's economy in the short term, but the US will do its utmost to control oil prices and minimize any negative effects in order to prevent oil prices from affecting the global economy.
Third, the broad use of new weapons technologies by the US and the way troops are used in a quick war could be instructive for Taiwan in developing its military structure for the defense of Taiwan and Penghu.
Chang Yan-ting is a colonel in the ROC air force and an associate professor at the department of international studies at the Political Warfare College.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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