Although France and Russia have made it clear that they will not hesitate to exercise their veto power to oppose a possible US-led war against Iraq, both the US and the UK still continue to lobby the members of the UN Security Council in order to legitimize a war. In addition, senior US officials have said that Washington will carry on despite opposition from the UN Security Council. Apparently, the countdown for a war on Iraq has already begun.
Except for the Muslim world, the loudest anti-war protests are heard in western Europe. During the Cold War, western European nations were generally on good terms with the US. Since the Cold War ended, however, US-European relations have undergone clear changes, especially between the US and Europe's two most important nations, Germany and France. The gap in values between the US and Europe is widening mainly because European integration has progressed smoothly, thereby raising its awareness of autonomy.
Germany has strongly opposed a US-led attack on Iraq because its government made an anti-war election pledge last year and because its worsening financial and economic situation restricts its actions. Germany has a seat on the Security Council, but cannot veto resolutions because it is not a permanent member. Its anti-war efforts are therefore outshone by those of France and Russia.
Traditionally, France has endeavored to maintain its leadership role in Europe in an attempt to rival the US. Its anti-US stance today will be conducive to boosting its international prowess.
The decision to wage a war should be approved by the UN, a policy insisted on by both Germany and France, as well as by the international mainstream opinion, especially in Europe. The regional power France is naturally confident of its stance.
Russia is another permanent member of the Security Council strongly opposed to war. During the Cold War, construction in Iraq was mostly financed by Moscow, leaving the Middle East nation US$8 billion in debt to Russia. After the Cold War came to an end, the two countries signed many cooperative projects that might bring enormous benefits to both sides. But a UN embargo has limited Iraqi oil exports, seriously affecting Russia's interests. How to safeguard its interests might be the driving force behind Moscow's opposition to a US attack on Iraq.
In Turkey, the parliament has refused to open up its bases to 26,000 American soldiers. This is a decisive factor. The Turkish chief of the general staff recently voiced his backing for the US. It is still unknown whether his move will lead to another round of voting in the Turkish parliament.
Meanwhile, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and other new members of NATO that will soon join the EU have all expressed their support for the US -- hoping to confront Russia with US protection. On the other hand, they are still receiving aid from the EU. This makes Germany and France feel that the US is clearly using the contradictions among the European countries to further its own interests.
Moreover, some Republican members of the US Congress have called on the public to boycott German and French products. Thus, today's diplomatic conflicts have already spread to the economic aspect.
Something else that deserves our attention is that China's annual National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference -- known as the "two conferences"(兩會) -- have just ended in Beijing. For China, the "two conferences" are much more significant than any possible US attack on Iraq. Although Chinese President Jiang Zemin (
To be blunt, if the US can quickly accomplish its military goals in Iraq with limited force and nurture a pro-US regime there, it will certainly help Washington control the oil resources in the Persian Gulf region. This would not be welcomed by western European countries.
If a US attack on Iraq is prolonged, global oil prices will rise and Iraqi refugees will flee the country. This will be a heavy blow to Germany, France and other countries. Plus, if the US is attacked by terrorists again in retaliation for its invasion of Iraq, the damage caused may be as serious as that of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
For Taiwan, oil prices have already risen while the stock market remains stagnant. A US-led war against Iraq will inevitably affect the country. We must closely watch the situation and make cautious responses.
Tang Shao-cheng is an associate research fellow in the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
TRANSLATED BY JACKIE LIN AND EDDY CHANG
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