In recent months, the specter of war has loomed in the Persian Gulf. In Taiwan, debate on US military action against Iraq is, for the most part, confined to the preparation of oil reserves and the war's likely effect on the stock market and the economy. The seriousness of the split in the Western world caused by a possible US-Iraq war is, however, unprecedented in the post-Cold War period. The decision as to whether or not to go to war will be key to the development of the balance of powers in the 21st century. Whatever happens, there will be consequences for Taiwan.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the formerly bi-polar balance of powers became one in which there is one superpower -- the US -- and a number of other major powers. The truth of this has become all the more stark since US President George W. Bush entered the White House. He has insisted on developing the National Missile Defense system. At the Doha round of WTO talks, he pushed hard for trade regulations that favored US industries. His policies have given the world an unmistakable indication of the sheer power of the US.
In 2001, the superpower's position was shaken by the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11. To solicit support from other major powers in the war against terrorism, Bush began to accept the importance of international cooperation. Even so, Washington continues to play the leading role in international politics, as in the US-led coalition in Afghanistan.
Another example is the establishment of the NATO-Russia Council in May last year to facilitate cooperation on security issues. This development, as most people believed at the time, suggested that the US had finally quelled the Russian doubts about NATO that had their origins in the Bosnia conflict. Russia and Europe would follow the guidance of the US in NATO, playing together the most important role in international politics.
But the looming US-Iraq war has caused the NATO allies to split like never before. For powerful European countries and China, a "multipolar world" is the key to promoting their positions in international politics. This is why the imminent decisions of the major powers will greatly influence the new world order.
First, should the US and Britain take military action against Iraq the UN, and should the war end in a matter of weeks as anticipated by the US, the status quo will continue unabated. With the exception of Britain, the western European powers will probably seek support from countries in eastern and southern Europe. They may develop a common EU foreign policy in order to counte the US the next time around.
Second, should the US and Britain back down in the face of international opposition, or the war reach a stalemate so that other major powers are forced to intervene to bring it to a conclusion, the unipolar dominance of the US will be shattered. The balance of powers will become multipolar. The major powers in the UN will be the core of international politics. All international issues will depend on these few powerful countries for resolution.
In the future, the east European countries which currently support US military action against Iraq will lean toward the powerful western European countries. European affairs will be dominated by France, Germany and Russia. Asia will be dominated by China.
Taiwan also faces a powerful country with regional ambitions -- China. Any changes -- particularly as far as security issues are concerned -- in the balance of powers will inevitably have profound consequences for Taiwan.
A US-Iraq war and the changes in the balance of powers that it would cause will put the wisdom and courage of the Taiwanese people and the government to the test.
Chen Chi-mai is a DPP legislator.
Translated by Grace Shaw
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