There have been reports in the media that Forbes Magazine in one of its upcoming issues will rank Taiwan sixth on a list of the 15 places in the world most likely to see war. It is true that the relationship between Taipei and Beijing includes complex international political factors involving both countries as well as the US. Looking only at the cross-strait relationship, however, the domestic media is constantly questioning whether President Chen Shui-bian's (
China's understanding of Taiwan is basically that it is able to maintain its living space and room to maneuver internationally as a result of the US' political and military protection and that it maintains a certain friendship with Japan as a result of 50 years of colonial rule. Although Beijing believes there is "reason" in seeing Taiwan as part of China, it is not powerful enough to support this reason. The only way China will be able to solve the Taiwan question is to grow sufficiently powerful, and its developing economic might is its best help. This is of course nationalistic thinking. Hong Kong's return to China after more than 150 years also brought spiritual and moral encouragement for a Chinese solution to the Taiwan question.
Such thinking in fact clearly neglects Taiwan's subjectivity -- the will and opinions of its people. Neglect of these opinions is also the reason the Chinese organizations dealing with Taiwan completely miscalculated the results of the presidential elections in 1996 and 2000 as well as the 2001 legislative elections.
The majority of Chinese organizations dealing with Taiwan appear to try to gain an understanding of the nation's politico-economic situation. They subscribe to various local newspapers and they can read news in Taiwan's electronic media. They know the names of the nation's politicians, parties and even members of factions like the backs of their hands. So why all these miscalculations?
One important reason is the inability of the Chinese to understand the workings of an electoral system. Despite comprehensive statistical information and active contacts with Taiwanese politicians, the lack of this vantage point leads to imaginary results.
The miscalculation of the outcome 2001 legislative elections led to a certain amount of frustration in some Chinese organizations studying Taiwan. Not much could be done about the fact that candidates whom Beijing did not favor surprised Chinese observers by winning both the 1996 and 2000 presidential elections. How-ever, the moribund Taiwanese economy, the resulting China fever and the dissatisfaction with the DPP's policies together with the great increase in China's international exposure (winning the bid to host the 2008 Olympic Games, the APEC meeting in Shanghai and so on) firmly convinced Chinese observers that the green camp would lose the 2001 legislative elections. This would not be another miscalculation. This time the political evaluation would definitely be correct. But once again the Chinese observers were wrong.
In recent years some analytical articles from Chinese organizations have been published in news magazines. If we look at the Chinese view of Taiwan as it appears in the Chinese media, we see that, in addition to perpetuating the view that Taiwan relies on the US and is friendly with Japan, there has been a great increase in interest in Taiwanese elections. However, some new viewpoints are also being created by the media themselves that make it impossible to get a more incisive understanding of what makes modern Taiwan tick.
After the miscalculation of the 2001 elections, for example, the results were attributed to the "irrational southern electorate." An analysis of this reasoning reveals the idea that since the DPP government had made an economic mess, voters should have used their votes rationally and delivered a vote of no confidence in the government. How could these southern voters defy reason and loyally support the DPP?
The miscalculation was then instead attributed to the complexity of Taiwan and its complicated "black gold" politics and political interests, implying that the elections in fact are not a rational game and that the electoral process is simply a tool for politicians to manipulate the voters.
Chinese observers actually neglected the facts that even though the DPP's early achievements and the economy were not good, Taipei's representative to the APEC meeting in Shanghai, Lin Hsin-i (林信義), was repeatedly stopped by China's Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan (唐家璇) when attempting to speak. This happened near the legislative elections. Would voters possibly have been unable to choose between the more important issue of national dignity and delivering a vote of no confidence in the DPP government?
Further, almost anyone concerned about the development of social movements will agree that even though the environment for such movements in Taiwan isn't yet ideal, at least there will be independent-minded voters or social groups expressing hopes for and expectations of political ideals. It is true that there is still room for reform of the actual workings of the electoral system, but voters are absolutely not mere tools to be manipulated.
Once upon a time, Taiwan was called "a troublemaker" by some US newspapers. This led to incessant reflection on, and criticism of, Taiwan's China policies in the domestic media. Such criticism and reflection has been even more intense since the DPP came to power.
But is Taiwan a troublemaker? In addition to reflecting over Taiwan, shouldn't the local media also consider Beijing's policies and its hidden agenda for Taiwan?
Hsu Tung-ming is a freelance writer based in Beijing.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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