US President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell should thank Osama bin Laden. Both men have been trying, without much success, to convince the international community that Iraq has links to bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist group. But an audio recording of a speech attributed to bin Laden that was aired by the al-Jazeera TV on Tuesday has helped Bush and Powell out of their predicament, by binding Iraq and al-Qaeda together.
The emergence of an audiotape, which both US and German officials say is genuine, is significant in several ways.
First, it confirms that bin Laden has survived the Afghan war and is still capable of issuing attack orders to Islamic terrorists.
Second, bin Laden's calls for Muslims worldwide to stop a US-led war on Iraq and for Muslims in Iraq to launch terrorist attacks against the US and its allies are both an order for terrorist attacks and a declaration of war.
Third, it allows Washington to claim that bin Laden's speech is evidence of an alliance between al-Qaeda and Baghdad.
Iraq is a Muslim country, but President Saddam Hussein runs a non-religious government. Bin Laden has also painted the ruling Baath Party as a bunch of corrupt, whisky-quaffing atheists and called Saddam's government "infidels." For his part, Saddam has long denied links to al-Qaeda.
The release of an audiotape at this particular point is an act of political adventurism that targets two of bin Laden's enemies -- the US and Saddam. In the speech, bid Laden appeals to Iraqis to join with him to battle their common foe, the US. Washington and its allies may score a victory in Iraq, or they may get bogged down in a long-running war. Both scenarios are to bin Laden's advantage.
The looming threat of terrorist attacks has prompted the US to raise its war alert to the second-highest "orange" level. The UK has also raised its terrorist alert, sending troops and tanks out into the streets of London earlier this week to bolster police patrols. Given that many al-Qaeda members have been arrested in the UK, that country is probably the most likely target of terrorist attacks outside the US. Bin Laden also called upon Muslim revolutions in Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen to rise up. Other countries in the Persian Gulf which provides troops for the war or harbor US or other ally troops may also come under terrorist attacks.
The audiotape may give the US stronger reasons to dissolve the opposition coming from Germany, France and others against military action in Iraq. That will help the US out of its legitimacy crisis in the push for a war. On the other hand, however, bin Laden has also stoked the flames of anti-American sentiment among Muslims, allowing him to reap benefits from the US-Iraq quarrel and make himself a radical anti-US Muslim leader.
Bin Laden's calculations have been meticulous, but they are not without loopholes. His voice has once again turned global attention on him, the mastermind behind the Sept. 11 attacks, and the US and UK may once again readjust their priorities and turn their attention on their number-one wanted criminal.
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