Since the KMT and the PFP announced on Dec. 14 that they would field a joint ticket to contest next year's presidential election, negotiations on the matter have remained deadlocked. This is not surprising, for the following reasons.
First, the parties' understanding of the results of recent opinion polls is questionable. In this regard, both the reliability and validity of these opinion polls deserve our attention. In terms of reliability, most opinion poll results suggest that KMT-PFP cooperation is seen as a guarantee of victory in the presidential election. In fact, this is not the case. Although opinion polls show that President Chen Shui-bian (
In terms of validity, KMT Chairman Lien Chan's (
Next, the KMT's candidate has not yet been decided. This is an obstacle to KMT-PFP cooperation.
Whether Lien or Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
A joke once told by former US president Ronald Reagan illustrates the point. Two friends run into a hungry bear in a forest. One immediately puts his running shoes on. "Are you nuts? Can you run faster than a bear?" the other asks. "I don't have to run faster than the bear," the first friend replies. "I just have to run faster than you." KMT-PFP cooperation will enter a new phase if Lien accepts that Soong is a much stronger candidate than himself, and accordingly opts to nominate Ma as the KMT's candidate.
Two conditions have to be met in order to take KMT-PFP cooperation forward.
First, the KMT must name its candidate as soon as possible. If it goes with its current regulations, which state that the party's presidential candidate shall be nominated by its National Congress representatives, perhaps Ma should give up his idea of replacing Lien. If Ma insists on fighting Lien for the nomination, he may risk destroying his political career.
Second, once the KMT announces its own candidate, the leaders of the two parties must establish rules for their cooperation on the basis of accurate interpretations of opinion poll results.
A candidate's political charisma, for example, should certainly be considered a priority since such factors play an important role in Taiwan's presidential elections. It should also be agreed that a coalition government will be formed [if the joint ticket is successful], so that the two parties can share power and responsibilities.
Hu Tsu-ching is an associate professor in the department of political science at Tunghai University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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