Fri, Jan 31, 2003 page8

• Don't let China make Taiwan a fool

  • By Lin Kien-tsu 林健次
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  China was the main culprit that blocked a planned visit to Thailand by a legislative delegation led by the legislator's vice speaker Chiang Ping-kun (江丙坤).

  China is like a tyrannical neighbor who declares that your home is part of hers. She flashes her weapons, saying that she is not above using violence to achieve her goal. She is the neighborhood rogue, not only stopping you from going out, but also scaring other people from making friends with you.

  She lives to the left of you, so you stick to the right. But this tyrant threatens the neighbors to your right saying that something bad will happen to them if they dare to make friends with you, forcing them to break off relations and, further narrowing your path.

  You think that if you cannot walk the main road, then you should take the fire escape. Unexpectedly, however, this tyrant has not even missed the neighbors at that juncture.

  Finally, you decide that since all the routes have been blocked, you should at least be able to dig a tunnel. Even more unexpectedly, before you've even finished digging the tunnel, the pressure from the tyrant has forced your friends underground to publicly announce that they will never welcome a visit.

  There is no end to the stories about Beijing's diplomatic pressure. President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) was left with no choice but to cancel a plan to "dig a tunnel" to visit Indonesia and just over a month ago and Chiang's fire escape to Thailand was blocked. This is just the tip of the diplomatic iceberg.

  The above analogy makes it easy to see that it is China, this tyrant of a neighbor, that is principally responsible for preventing Taiwan from becoming more involved on the world stage. The strange thing is that each time a small country gives in to Chinese pressure and brings harm to Taiwan without benefit to themselves, there are always people in Taiwan who clamor for this or that little country to be punished, without mentioning the hand behind it all. Sometimes even the government joins in the chorus.

  This inverted, mixed-up way of handling things only makes the tyrant laugh behind our backs, since Taiwan's stupidity helps her to achieve her goals.

  The fact that Southeast Asian nations don't let local officials visit is a small matter. If the government really were to begin "punishing" these nations, causing the actual relationships with our neighbors to deteriorate, wouldn't that mean that this nation had walked right into China's trap?

  There is a widespread misconception that Southeast Asian nations rely this country's businesses for foreign investment, a place to divert unemployed labor and, indeed, for their very food and clothing and that they are therefore very frightened of being punished by Taipei.

  There is only partial truth in this notion. First, foreign investment and labor exports are economically beneficial to both Southeast Asia and Taipei. By punishing them, this nation would also be punishing itself.

  Many traditional and labor-intensive industries in this country would not be able to continue to trade without foreign labor. Unless Taipei is prepared to accept such negative consequences, therefore, talk of punishment is pointless.

  Second, there are those who say that the impact on this country of punishing a specific country would be insignificant since we would be able to continue investing in Southeast Asia and importing the region's labor simply by shifting investments and labor import quotas from one country to another.

  True, Taiwan does enjoy a relative monopolistic position in supplying foreign capital to and importing labor from these countries. But there are only so many Southeast Asian nations and under pressure from China, these nations engage in unfriendly activities against Taipei even as they trade with Taiwanese businesses. Can Taiwan punish all countries in which it invests and from which it imports labor?

  Chinese pressure on South-east Asia is, in fact, creating contradictions between Taiwan and the nations in the region. This cannot be seen simply as a political-unification-versus-independence problem. The contradictions China tries to produce can also be seen as part of its economic strategies aimed at Taipei and Southeast Asia.

  In the area of investments, the result of deteriorating relations between this country and Southeast Asian nations would be the loss of a channel for Taiwanese capital investments, and a loss of foreign investment for Southeast Asian nations, harming both sides.

  Taiwanese capital could only be shifted to the black hole that is China and China would be the only beneficiary.

  In the area of labor, the result of deteriorating relations between Taiwan and the Southeast Asian nations would be that these nations would export less labor, thus increasing the pressures created by domestic unemployment. For Taiwan, the result would be that industries relying on foreign labor would have to face ruin.

  The result of deteriorating competitiveness on the part of Taiwanese industries reliant on foreign labor would be a greater temptation to import labor from China or to relocate abroad. Since Taipei would be seeking to punish Southeast Asian nations -- and given the atmosphere it would create by doing so -- relocating abroad would mean relocating to China. Once again, Beijing would be the only beneficiary.

  From the perspective of the government's "go south" and foreign labor policies, China and the Southeast Asian nations are rivals, while Taiwan and Southeast Asia share common interests. This is something that the government has to understand, and that it has to make the governments of Southeast Asia understand.

  There is no reason for Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations to work against each other because of contradictions created by China. If such understanding and empathy can be turned into policy, it will certainly improve policy and the actual relationships between this nation and Southeast Asia.

  Most importantly, the people and government of Taiwan cannot dance to Beiijing's tune and the contradictions it creates by foolishly punishing the Southeast Asian nations.

  That would mean falling on Beijing's double-edged, political-economic sword, held en garde to harm both Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations.

  If China sees its political-economic pressure on Taipei gradually succeed, it is sure to intensify its pressure, which will mean that Taiwan's politico-economic situation will gradually deteriorate further.

  Lin Kien-tsu is an associate professor at Tamkang University.

  Translated by Perry Svensson
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