Analyzing the results of elections is easy for political commentators and journalists. But there are moments when pundits have to think deeply about the message voters have expressed through their ballots. Exactly what have we learned from the mayoral elections? The rise of Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
None of this political talk seems to meet what the voters are looking for. To put it more specifically, politicians should learn a lesson from the mayoral elections -- that is -- all politics is local.
Only when candidates spell out their vision and programs for building a livable city (or country) can they win the endorsement of the voters. When it comes to the question of nationwide elections, it is the independence-unification dichotomy or national identity that usually divides voters between the pan-blue and the pan-green camps. However, such an ideological distinction played less of a role in Taipei and Kaohsiung.
Most political analysts tend to overstate the power of money, spin, scandal, the voter's self-interest and image. In fact, the message is more important than money. Issues are more central than image. Strategy matters more than tactics. Issues are more powerful than image and strategy more important than spin.
Since people believe in their ability to make Taipei and Kaohsiung better places to live, both Ma and Mayor Frank Hsieh's (謝長廷) unique personalities as being determined and strong political leaders helped to convince voters. Even defamation and alleged scandals didn't affect the voters' choice.
As Taiwan becomes more democratic, voters have become vastly better informed, more centrist, more sophisticated and increasingly disgusted with negative politics, especially when they feel they are being cheated.
This shows the growing emphasis on a leader's message rather than his image to the public. The increasing importance of message over image is part of the shift from representative to direct democracy. In a representative democracy, voters worry deeply about what kind of man or woman will represent them in the legislature or as governor. They carefully weigh character in evaluating whom to trust with their vote. But as voters become more certain of their own opinions, they worry less about to whom they will delegate their power, and more about whether their representative will echo their own points of view. Therefore, character counts for less and message counts for more.
Not only are issue-specific messages more effective than image ads in getting votes, they are better able to explain the true character and personality of the candidate. When a candidate takes a particular position in the thick of controversy, voters feel this to be the most reliable indicator they have of his or her true essence. Voters know the candidate has chosen sides. The public now expects a candidate to elaborate on his or her program, vision and ideas, after which they will elect him or her to fulfill that specific mandate. Candidates must explain to the public the extent to which they can fulfill the platforms they unveiled during the campaign.
Instead of just talking about how to "unite the secondary enemy to defeat the chief enemy," all potential front-runners must bring this perception of strength to domestic problems to prevail in the next presidential election.
In other words, whoever wants to win the next presidency should take the theme of strength and apply it to issues such as economic rejuvenation, education reforms, the fight against crime,corruption and drug abuse, environmental protection and improving the safety of women and children. These issues are closely connected to people.
For President Chen Shui-bian(陳水扁) and the DPP, the key to winning the 2004 election does not lie in the split of the pan-blue camp. Given that the administration is still struggling to put the economy on the right track, Chen should lay out his policy agenda, thus showing real action.
The new approach is not illustrated in his routine visits to the countryside -- rather it involves the capability of identifying new issues and disseminating his campaign message to the public.
For the KMT and the PFP, the most important task is not about what combination of tickets would be most favorable to oust Chen, but rather engaging in a friendly competition of offering better policy alternatives to the public.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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