Various signs indicate that China is putting more emphasis on direct transportation links with Taiwan. Not only does Beijing define them as a major strategic issue, but it is also pushing for the establishment of such routes.
China plans to increase its economic pull through direct links, encourage Taiwanese businesses to migrate across the Strait, speedily absorb Taiwanese capital and talent and deepen Taiwan's dependence on the Chinese economy.
Meanwhile, its strategic goal is to "push for unification through direct links" -- using economic integration to achieve political unification. This is why Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
According to Chinese scholars visiting Taiwan, Beijing believes the opportunity has arrived for pushing for direct links because the supportive forces, including Taiwan's airlines, politicians, businesspeople, media and acedemics have converged into a driving force that President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) government can hardly resist.
Opposition parties are gearing up to push amendments to the Statute Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area (
Beijing officials in charge of Taiwan affairs reckon that the second half of next year will be a favorable time for the two sides to enter into negotiations. Their calculation is that, for the 2004 presidential election, Chen will have to express goodwill and give ground on this issue to garner votes from businesspeople and those supporting direct links.
Beijing has always wanted to belittle and marginalize the Taiwan government. It refuses to contact or negotiate with the Chen administration, but wants to discuss direct links through non-governmental organizations. Will Taiwan change its stance and make a concession? Will Chen yield to Beijing at the expense of Taiwan's government authority and sovereignty for the sake of votes?
Before sitting down with Beijing to discuss direct links, the government must evaluate what Taiwan stands to gain and lose. If direct links will speed up outflow of the nation's capital and talent to China, hollow out industries and increase unemployment, what good will the establishment of such links do to Taiwan?
Another question that cannot be ignored is whether other nations will allow Taiwan and China to monopolize the routes.
Former US Secretary of Defense William Perry, who was in the US-China Relations Committee delegation, said that US carriers take a great interest in the cross-strait transportation. The delegation from the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, joined by former US deputy national security adviser James Steinberg and former deputy assistant secretary of defense Kurt Campbell, proffered more opinions during a meeting with Taiwan's lawmakers early last month.
Campbell said the US will not set preconditions on cross-strait direct links, but the issue cannot possibly be negotiated through NGOs. Only through the exercise of government authority can any results be produced, he said.
He added that, since the Sept. 11 attacks, US airlines have been facing unprecedented business decline. Highly valuing the business opportunity from the cross-strait routes, US carriers undoubtedly have an interest in the operation. Can Taipei and Beijing agree if airlines from the US, Japan and other nations ask for participation on the routes? Can Taiwan and China "monopolize" the direct routes given their status as WTO members?
Even if Taiwan does not deliberately "internationalize" the direct links, more variables will be added to the negotiations if foreign airlines demand fifth freedom rights. If both sides start entering into the negotiation in the latter half of next year as Beijing anticipates, what does Taiwan want? On what issues can Taiwan make concessions? How long will the negotiation last? Can it be concluded by the next presidential election in March 2004? Or is it possible that no results are produced after three or five years?
To protect the overall interests of Taiwan, the government should conduct careful evaluations on various aspects beforehand.
Parris Chang is a DPP legislator.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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