In analyzing the key factors that might be attributed to the result of the Kaohsiung mayoral election, one can identify a number of key points that were scored and lost by the two major candidates.
On the KMT's part, considering that the pan-blue camp didn't really join forces until the last minute, KMT candidate Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英), to a certain extent, could be said to have fought a successful battle.
Looking deeper into Kaohsiung's political landscape, the KMT's long-time rule in the city in the past decades had allowed it to cultivate a solid support base at the grassroots level. The mobilization forces of the party's local factions remain strong after four years of the DPP, as shown by the margin of about 25,000 votes between the two.
In the last elections, many of the teachers and public servants -- traditional staunch supporters of the KMT -- switched their support to the DPP's Hsieh. But Huang's background as a university professor and the discrepancy between Hsieh's reform measures and the people's expectations might have helped Huang regain at least a good portion of these votes.
Still, there are a number of things that might have cost the former deputy Kaohsiung mayoral the election.
To start, Huang failed to articulate what he had to offer for the city's future development. In particular, Huang seemed to have been virtually sidelined in his own campaign in the last two days before the election.
The media's attention was not drawn so much to Huang himself as to the political heavyweights that were or were not stumping for him.
Also, by resorting to a single campaign strategy -- challenging Hsieh's integrity over a NT$4.5 million check from a businesswoman during his stint as a lawmaker -- in the last 48 hours of the campaign, the KMT achieved counterproductive effects. There was minimal debate on the differences of the two candidates' policies and visions.
It seemed to me that the supporters of the pan-blue camp cast their votes for Huang because of their identification with the political party, not the politician.
These factors might have had an adverse effect on drawing the support of non-partisan or independent voters.
On the DPP's side, that Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) won his re-election bid showed that the achievements of his administration in the past four years, despite insufficient media exposure, were still recognized by the residents of the city.
Unlike the KMT's supporters, the DPP supporters in Kaohsiung identified themselves more with the individual candidates than with political parties.
Hsieh also owed his hard-earned triumph partly to the KMT's excessive negative campaigning strategies, especially in the last days of the campaign. The muckraking tactics deployed in the campaign went too far and became a double-edged sword.
One of the unique characteristics of voters in Kaohsiung is that they have the tendency to sympathize with the underdog, and by cornering Hsieh, the KMT made Hsieh look like one.
As far as I know, a number of the non-partisan voters or those voters who might not have bothered to cast their ballet were probably ignited by the negative campaign strategies and voted for Hsieh.
But the fact that Hsieh's victory did not come as easy as previously thought is quite surprising.
There are a number of points to be noted. The first being that despite Hsieh's hardwork in bettering the city in the past four years, there seemed to be a gap between what he achieved and the need and expectations of the city residents.
For example, he put much effort into the redesign of old communities in the city, but this was not much appreciated by the local residents.
Second, the relations between his administration and the local media remained much to be desired. Reporting of what he and members of his administration have been doing was either insufficient or unfavorable.
So I think Mayor Hsieh and his administration, in moving toward the second tenure, should bear these points in mind.
And as for what light the election result might shed on the future political landscape in southern Taiwan, it proved yet again that in a face-off between the pan-green and pan-blue camps, Kaohsiung is still the stronghold of the DPP.
It will be the vital resources and support basis in President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) re-election bid in the 2004 presidential election.
But, judging from the difficulties that Hsieh encountered in his re-election, Chen will need to take a few lessons on board before starting out.
Bob Kuo is deputy chairman of the Taiwan Southern Society.
Compiled by Wu Pei-shih
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