The economy in Taiwan has slowed over the last few years to the point of contraction. Together with changes to Taiwan's industrial infrastructure, unemployment has risen above 5 percent. The large scale migration of industries to China affects Taiwan's industrial transformation and investment, and even has an impact on existing industries. It is therefore not very realistic to combine a relaxation of trade measures aimed at China with the government's pursuit of economic prosperity.
Some claim that the only way to develop Taiwan's economy is to remove all restrictions on cross-strait links. But what problems would direct links solve? Would they be beneficial to Taiwan's economy in general and to solving issues and challenges facing low-income groups in particular? Would they strengthen China's vicious competition? Weaken it? There are many question marks.
Labor conditions in China are bad, which serves to highlight how competitive the communist state is on that score, but Taiwanese labor conditions cannot be lowered to achieve the same competitive salaries as in China.
Direct links will only result in companies leaving Taiwan at an even faster rate, since travel will be convenient. This will not be conducive to solving unemployment or poverty issues. Direct links or aviation links causing capital to remain in Taiwan while people move to China is wishful thinking. The idea that R&D will remain in Taiwan while manufacturing moves to China is just a euphemism for moving capital to China while leaving debt behind in Taiwan, and a way to conceal the fact that Taiwan's industry is being hollowed out.
Over the past year, the government's "effective management" policy has resulted in industrial capital moving ever faster in the direction of China.
The hope that capital will remain in Taiwan while people move to China once direct aviation links are established is really a fool's dream. Taiwan's industry continues to contract, the economy is too weak to be revived, workers are threatened by unemployment, and a financial crisis may erupt at any moment. A discussion of direct links and aviation links in this situation only serves to encourage industry to move to China at an even faster pace, and it makes it easier for Taiwanese to buy houses, travel and spend in China. The positive and negative effects of such behavior on Taiwan's economy is abundantly clear.
Legislative Vice Speaker Chiang Ping-kun (
The calls for a 50-year peace agreement, all-out efforts to develop the economy, using China's position as factory to the world, and developing Taiwan into a technology island and an Asia-Pacific regional operation center are all matters of unilateral, wishful thinking.
At a time when China is aiming 400 missiles at Taiwan, hopes for a cross-strait peace agreement are naive and unrealistic.
Tseng Chao-chang is chairman of the National Bar Association.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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