Thursday was the 91st birthday of the ROC. Both Taiwanese who bask in the freedoms and democracy of Taiwan and overseas Taiwanese whose hearts continue to belong to Taiwan all felt elated on this day. ROC is the very first democratic republic in Asia. It was in the third wave of global democratization that democracy finally materialized in Taiwan. The history of this country's path to democracy is one of many trials and tribulations.
The hopes and challenges Taiwan has faced in recent years indicates this process is still ongoing. Since 1997, the Asian financial crisis and the collapse of the Internet bubble have had a very serious impact on this country's economic performance. Moreover, China has been escalating its manipulative tactics and double-fisted war/peace policy toward Taiwan. Taiwan must overcome these challenges.
However, for the past two years, problems with the economy and local industries created as a result of the first-ever transfer of power and a host of other external and internal problems, together have made some people lose faith in the future of Taiwan.
These individuals have forgotten how the people of Taiwan created renowned economic miracles and democratic accomplishments amidst turbulence and waves in the past 5 decades. These accomplishments in turn serve as a strong basis for the country's sustainable development.
Before a backdrop of international and domestic economic depression, China continues to thrive economically because it is still in the primary stage of economic development. As a result, these individuals began to theorize that Taiwan's economy is necessarily dependent on the Chinese economy. They maintain that business enterprises faces an inevitable death if they don't relocate to China and that direct links is the only solution for Taiwan's problems.
Little do they know that the international community still gives Taiwan's overall economic index very favorable and positive ratings. Most people in Taiwan continue to face the economic challenges head on and in full force.
Problems with Taiwan's economy and industries may have arrived suddenly, but they were the products of long-running industrial exoduses and declines. As a result of appreciation in currency value, the rise of land and labor costs, harsh environmental protection standards, and the slacking off of government powers, businesses have been compelled to leave Taiwan and relocate to China, where economic reforms were underway.
The gradual whittling away of capital have caused many industrial parks in Taiwan to become barren. The employment rate and incomes have both regressed. The real estate sector and the stock market suffer from serious declines as well. The government's annual income revenues decline annually as well. Obviously, the cause of this vicious cycle was the exodus and the whithering of the industries.
Recently, high-tech stock prices in the US have experienced dramatic declines in the stock market, aggravating the problems of Taiwan. The industrial exodus and the technological upgrade of the remaining industries have worsened the severity of structural unemployment.
After a period of soul searching, the Taiwan government has finally discovered that "Taiwan first" investments are the only solution. It is now focusing on improving the industrial competitiveness and putting in trillions of NT dollars to promote local industries.
It is believed that as as long as the government effectively keeps the industries and capitals from further injury, and at the same time endeavors to drastically improve the investment environment, another spring will arrive for Taiwan's economy after some growing pains.
As for all the problems associated with unemployment, the real estate sector, the bourse, excessive default loans and government revenues, they won't be too hard to handled by then.
On the eve of Double-Ten day, the economic-policy proposal presented by the KMT said that the government should revive the traditional industries, raise expenditures for economic development and give the local governments the means to solicit foreign investments. Frankly speaking, these suggestions are all helpful to the revival of industries. However, at the same time, the KMT also asked that the government open up direct links as soon as possible. The proposal also calls for unrestricted visits by Chinese tourists, and the liberalization of cross-strait investment.
Taiwan's economic on China has already reached an alarming level. Yet, the KMT is still calling for direct links, which in reality would totally open the door for industrial and capital outflow to China. This is no cure for Taiwan's economic peril. It will only do more harm than good.
Before 1997, Hong Kong kept its distance from China and was able to maintain its prosperity and stability. Since 1997, Hong Kong's economy has suffered from devastating blows. This is not to mention that political freedoms are becoming less and less protected in this former colony.
If the KMT truly intends to save Taiwan's poverty and resolve the unemployment problem, why prescribe a medicine that offers exactly the opposite? Everyone has witnessed how the consensus reached during last year's Economic Development Advisory Conference (經發會) to engage in a policy of "active opening" created negative side effects, including a record high 5 percent unemployment rate, among others. Why can't the KMT realize this?
Links obsession
Direct links are not just any direct links. The matter touches upon issues concerning Taiwan's sovereignty, economic security, and so on. Proponents of direct links, including the KMT, repeatedly demand that the mandates of the statues governing cross-strait relations be relaxed, threatening that in lieu of these statues, they would seek to have direct links legislation passed. Some government officials have gone as far as saying that direct links may be implemented without any amendments to the laws.
These obsessions with direct links seem to reflect a total disregard for the fact that China characterized the direct links as an internal affair. Nor do they seem to care that direct links may cause a total economic collapse of Taiwan.
Proponents of the direct links are in fact deceiving themselves and others by claiming that they care about Taiwan's economy and workers, while sending Taiwan's industries and capital to China. Moreover, they also advocate market participation in Taiwan by Chinese capitals. Isn't this is more risky than "ushering a wolf into the room (
Even more off beat is the KMT's request that the government pushes for the signing of a 50-year peace treaty under which the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would only talk about their economies, entirely foregoing discussions of political issues, for 50 years. Everyone knows that China "politicizes" everything. It has no concept of not mixing business with politics. Isn't it self-delusional to think that such a treaty could serve as a safety vale for the risks created by cross-strait links?
In particular, when the KMT was in power, it couldn't even get China to sign an investment-protection agreement. Do they actually think about going as far as signing a peace treaty with the other side? Do these people think the 400 or so Chinese ballistic missiles targeting Taiwan and other advanced naval and air offensive weaponry targeting Taiwan are nothing but toys?
While China continues to publicize its "one China" policy in the international community, Taiwan would agree to not discuss political issues for fifty years. Would Taiwan's silence be interpreted as conceding that it is a part of China? By then, everyone would really have reasons to ask "ROC, are you really happy?"
The industrial recession in Taiwan has a combination of domestic and foreign causal factors. So long as the right medicine is prescribed for the roots of the illness, it won't be too difficult to rejuvenate Taiwan's economy. The government's various new measures to encourage "Taiwan first investments" should be looked upon with optimism..
KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) indicated that the government ought to abandon all ideological baggage and do all it can to salvage the sagging economy. But, in reality, the biggest baggage to Taiwan's economy is the inability of pro-unification media, greedy pro-China businesspeople, and the pro-Beijing opposition to leave behind the "one China" and cross-strait myths.
They obsess over the idea that "the direct links are the only way to save Taiwan" is the culprit of Taiwan economy's inability to recover. The economy is already facing enough crises, yet the KMT is still talking about quickly opening up direct links, visits by Chinese tourists and Chinese investment. These are measures that China had used on Hong Kong after the hand-over. They will only reduce Taiwan into another Hong Kong.
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