Legislative Yuan vice speaker and former Council of Economic Planning and Development Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (
Proponents of such an agreement often turn a blind eye to some very important issues. To begin with, China isn't about to go for it. All signs indicate that Beijing is getting edgy that the cross-strait status quo might drag on indefinitely. Chinese leaders have openly said that the "Taiwan issue" cannot be put off forever. Moreover, things between Beijing and the Chen Shui-bian (
An even more important reason that Beijing would not go for it is that the signing of such a treaty or agreement would suggest or imply that Taiwan and China are equals in some sense. That is something completely unacceptable to Beijing. In its eyes, Taiwan is a local province. It would be an insult to Beijing if it must lower itself to officially sign any such agreement in its capacity as a central government.
As for Taiwan, signing any such official agreement with Beijing is an option to be considered only if the agreement is perceived as an official treaty between two countries. Otherwise, it would be trampling on something that is no less precious than peace -- its sovereignty. This of course makes Beijing's willingness to opt for such an agreement even more remote.
Then there is the important question of what does the agreement say about the cross-strait relationship after the 50-year period is over? Roth envisioned that in exchange for 50 years of peace, Taiwan will promise to refrain from declaring independence, and then, after the 50-year period is over, the two sides would sit down to negotiate about unification. That is entirely unacceptable for Taiwan, since the government cannot agree to unification without the consent of the people.
Interestingly, Chiang's report does not appear to answer that question. At least, the Chinese-language media did not bother to report Chiang's proposal in this respect. But one cannot help wonder, without any promise on the part of Taiwan to refrain from declaring independence permanently, what else could have a remote chance of luring in Beijing? If this is truly what the report proposes, then it is essentially no different from the one proposed by Roth.
According to Chiang, the purpose of such an agreement is to give Taiwan some breathing space and some time to deal with its deteriorating economy. But the problem is why in the world would Beijing give Taiwan exactly that when it has been successfully doing everything within its power to suck Taiwan's economy dry as a way of coercing an eventual unification?
Chiang's proposal is neither an innovative nor creative solution to Taiwan's problems.
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