Since the Control Yuan censured the Executive Yuan for failing to propose effective strategies to deal with Taiwanese business investment in China, former president Lee Teng-hui (
Many of the remarks made on the matter, however, have been little more than subjective statements of opinion and have been of no help in terms of enabling us to understand the truth. Only through objective analysis and inquiry can we arrive at a correct understanding of the issue and make appropriate decisions.
Statistics show that from 1991 to last year, the total value of Taiwanese investment in China was US$29.6 billion -- or 7.5 percent of all foreign investment in the country. Whether that number is too high needs to be judged from both a domestic and international perspective.
During the same 11 years, the total value of investment in Tai-wan by Taiwanese companies was US$646.3 billion. Investment in China accounted for a mere 4.38 percent of the total value of Taiwanese investment on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Looking at the projects approved by the government's Investment Commission, however, about 90 percent were actually made by 20-plus percent of Taiwan's 100,000 or so manufacturing companies. This percentage is relatively high. But many of these manufacturers have long lost their competitiveness and proven unable to survive in Taiwan. Migrating to China was therefore their only option.
Different people may have varying views on whether such a level of investment volume was too high. Perhaps we can reach a fair conclusion by examining the methods employed by our major competitors.
Statistics show that, from 1995 to 1999, the total value of Singapore's China investment was US$12.76 billion, while that of its domestic investment was US$646.3 billion. Thus, the city-state's investments in China accounted for 7.61 percent of its total investment volume in the two countries.
South Korea invested about half of Taiwan's total investment volume in China in the same period, in the face of the severe Asian financial crisis. Although Japan and the US have frequently criticized China's investment environment, their own levels of investment in the country have surpassed that of Taiwan since 1995 and the gap is gradually broadening.
Taiwan's investment in China is no higher than that of its major competitors, suggesting that the nation's so-called "China fever" is relatively rational.
From Taiwan's trade surplus, we can easily see the benefit of our investment in China. According to the Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan has accumulated a US$162.8 billion surplus in an 11-year period. Generally speaking, each dollar invested has generated more than five dollars of revenue and profits continue to grow.
No business can ensure that it will never suffer a loss, but amount of unsuccessful investment in Taiwan far exceeds the amount of failed Taiwanese investment in China. Since over 400 of the world's top 500 enterprises have invested in China, Taiwanese who are investing there are actually competing with the world's top companies. The current failure rate therefore does not seem inappropriate.
What the government should do is remind local businesses about possible traps in China while leaving other matters to the market and the manufacturers themselves, since their ability and vision have long surpassed those of the government.
Tu Jenn-hwa is an associate professor at the Graduate Institute of National Development of National Taiwan University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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