The US Department of Defense's Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, which was released on July 12, pointed out Taiwan's growing vulnerability to China's pre-emptive, multi-pronged blitzkrieg.
Through acquisition of advanced weapons from Russia and frequent large-scale joint-force military exercises, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been steadily developing a credible capacity to coerce Taiwan into submission through a strategy of "rapid war, rapid resolution," which will deny any chance of third-party intervention. The US-China Security Review Commission's report to the US Congress, released on July 15, predicted that in three to five years the PLA will have sufficient military capability to pursue forceful absorption of Taiwan.
So why is the military balance of power shifting so rapidly in the PRC's favor? For one thing, China has increased its defense budget by a double-digit percentage each year for the past 10 years. China's defense spending is now estimated to be around US$80 billion a year. During the same period, Taiwan's defense spending steadily shrunk. The defense share of the government budget was 35.2 percent for the fiscal year beginning in 1990.
This percentage was reduced to 18 percent for the period from July 1, 1999 to Dec. 31, 2000. The defense budget for this 18-month period was US$12.6 billion (The ROC Yearbook 2000, p. 124). For fiscal year 2003 the defense share is 14.7 percent of the budget.
Thus, while China has increased its defense budget more than three-fold, Taiwan has cut its defense budget to less than half. Why such drastic reduction in defense spending in the face of the growing menace from the PLA?
One reason is the modernization of Taiwan's military forces, which involves reduction in overall troop strength, with an emphasis on smaller rapid reaction units with greater mobility and firepower. Other reasons may include an unrealistic expectation of help from US forces, which is not guaranteed and may not arrive on time. This is overly complacent.
Government finances have also deteriorated. The Ministry of Finance has pointed out that this year's budget deficit will be larger than last year. Total debt now stands at US$106 billion. In addition, the government faces pressure to fund social welfare programs such as the national health insurance program and the retired workers' pension program.
Regardless of the reasons, it appears that the military budget cuts have gone too far in light of Taiwan's growing susceptibility to a massive, surprise attack by the PLA. A few years ago, then-defense minister Tang Fei (
Israel's military forces are far superior to those of its neighbors and the US commitment to Israel's national survival is far stronger than its support for Taiwan. Yet Israel feels compelled to spend a four times greater share of its GDP on defense. It is quite possible that the pattern of Taiwan's defense spending betrays ignorance and negligence regarding the nation's security needs.
During former US president Bill Clinton's administration Taiwan had a hard time acquiring badly needed weapons systems from the US. The Bush administration, in contrast, has offered Taiwan a robust program of arms sales. But now Taipei is hesitant to purchase many weapons because of budgetary constraints.
Since the DPP came to power, President Chen Shui-bian's(
This integration policy, combined with Taiwan's perceived indifference towards its own national defense, has caused Washington's policy establishment to increasingly question Taipei's resolve in defending Taiwan's sovereignty and democracy. The resultant weakening of US support for Taiwan is palpable in the halls of Congress and among US think tanks. (See, "If Taiwan chooses unification, should the United States care?" Washington Quarterly, Summer 2002) is but the tip of an iceberg.
Beyond a hefty increase in defense spending, Taiwan urgently needs to implement many measures to bolster its national security. Right now citizens are generally ignorant of the impending PRC aggression. They do no know what to do in the event of a missile attack and enemy bombing. In the absence of a sound civil defense system, the chances of heavy civilian casualties and widespread panic are high.
The military's readiness suffers from years of perfunctory and infrequent exercises. Some analysts believe thousands of PRC intelligence operatives and special forces soldiers are already in place in Taiwan. Unless incarcerated or sent back to China, these elements could wreak havoc with Taiwan's power plants and water supply, oil reserve, transportation and other infrastructure in tandem with the PLA's military actions.
If Taiwan wishes to preserve the status quo, that is, to maintain its status as a de facto independent nation in accordance with the will of the majority of the Taiwanese people, then an agonizing reappraisal of its calamitous defense posture is long overdue.
Li Thian-hok is a prominent member of the Taiwanese-American community and a commentator based in Pennsylvania. Reprinted from the Sept. 26, 2002 issue of China Brief with permission. China Brief is a publication of the Jamestown Foundation.
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