On Oct. 25, China's president, Jiang Zemin (
Bush has previously entertained Russian President Vladimir Putin and British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the ranch. While Japan is the most important ally of the US in Asian, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has only been to Camp David.
China therefore feels that this special honor has won it considerable prestige and that Jiang is being shown respect. I am advised by certain well-informed persons however that Bush will visit every US state during the last ten days of October to assist in the election efforts of Republican congressional and gubernatorial candidates. It is a packed itinerary and Bush will therefore be unable to meet with Jiang in Washington. But both Bush and Jiang will be going to the APEC leaders meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico, on Oct. 26, so Bush arranged to have Jiang come to Texas on the 25th on his way to Mexico. Jiang's stay at the Crawford ranch will be very short. He will not spend the night and will only visit for four hours, one-and-a-half of which will be allocated for official talks. The rest of the time will be for lunch and a tour of the ranch.
Isn't Bush in fact then planning to be somewhat perfunctory in his treatment of Jiang? How can they possibly hold exhaustive discussion on international affairs and Sino-US relations in an hour and a half (with further deductions for translation time)? In fact, the important policy issues have already been discussed by bureaucrats through diplomatic channels and exchanges of officials at the vice ministerial level; this was the purpose of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's visit to Beijing in August.
For Jiang, the visit to Texas and the participation in the APEC meeting may well be his "graduation tour." At the 16th national congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and at next year's National People's Congress, Jiang will give up his posts as party general secretary, chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission and President of China.
He is now working hard to create a good record of achievements, hoping that he will be able to achieve some historic accomplishments during the summit with Bush. Jiang has deliberately avoided any acknowledgement of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) Aug. 3 speech in an attempt to use the summit to demand a clear statement from Bush that he does not support Taiwan independence. Jiang and other leaders in Beijing would like nothing more than for China and the US, following the summit, to issue a Fourth Communique, or at least some kind of written statement (a communique in all but name).
Failing this, Jiang will request that Bush orally reiterate the "three noes," stated by former president Bill Clinton stated in Shanghai in June 1998 (no support for Taiwan independence, no support for "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan" and no support for Taiwan's membership in international organizations where statehood is required).
Does Jiang believe his wishes will be fulfilled? No. Washington told Beijing a long time ago that the US will not agree to these demands.
The Chinese know only too well that the focus of the Bush-Jiang talks will be anti-terrorism and military action against Iraq, and that Bush does not agree to Jiang bringing up the "irrelevant" issue of Taiwan. If Jiang insists on doing so, Bush will have his standard response ready: "The US already has its own `one China' policy, and handles its relationship with the two sides in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act and the Three Communiques."
China's strategy of using the US to isolate Taiwan enjoyed some success during Clinton's second term. Since Bush moved into the White House in January last year, however, the US government has ceased its accommodation of Beijing's approach. The reason why a Taiwanese newspaper reporter stationed in Beijing triggered a rumor that a fourth Sino-US communique might be in the offing is that the journalist in question does not understand the thinking of the Bush administration. Any observer with a little common sense will wonder why Bush would sign a communique during Jiang's visit to his Crawford ranch if he did not do so during his visit to Beijing in February. If the US was going to sign a communique with a Chinese leader, it would certainly not do so with Jiang, but rather with his successor Hu Jintao (胡錦濤). If the US wants to bestow a favor on China, it will do so to its future leader, and not with the soon-to-retire Jiang.
I would remind Washington that, as it directs all its effort towards the anti-terrorism campaign, it should also keep in mind the 400 missiles that China has deployed to threaten Taiwan's 23 million people. This is a case of state terrorism. Recently I asked members of the US Congress' Taiwan Caucus to submit a bill requesting that China remove these missiles. The government should also forward a request to the Bush administration, asking it to urge the Chinese government to remove the missiles in the interests of cross-strait peace.
Parris Chang is a DPP legislator. Translated by Perry Svensson
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