China has reacted positively to Iraq's latest offer to permit the return of UN weapons inspections without preconditions. Together with France and Russia, China is among the UN member states inclined toward a political settlement of the issue rather than a military solution, as has been pushed by the George W. Bush administration. Chinese officials emphasize that the Iraqi issue must be resolved within the political framework of the UN system, that Baghdad should comply with all UN resolutions on weapons inspections and that Iraq's sovereignty must be respected.
However, Beijing's moment of truth will come when and if the US demands a vote in the UN Security Council authorizing the use of force against Iraq should the latter fail to satisfy the demands of the Bush administration -- disarmament and dismantling of all of its weapons of mass destruction, not just inspections. How China is going to vote in the UN Security Council will again be under the international microscope. It is highly likely that it will abstain, again.
China's apparently ambivalence toward the Iraqi issue is not new. In late 1990, in the aftermath of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Beijing condemned Iraq and called for its withdrawal from Kuwait but abstained from voting on UN Security Council Resolution 678 authorizing the use of force against the country. While supporting the UN's general goals of dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, Beijing has also been critical of the sanctions and US-UK aerial strikes against Baghdad.
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Within a broader context, Beijing's Iraq policy must be seen as being driven by three considerations. First is the principle of sovereignty and non-intervention, which Beijing holds dear. Second is the critical US-China relationship in the post-Sept. 11 context. Third is Beijing's growing concerns over the implications for its security of an expanding campaign against terrorism -- in particular the Bush administration's call for pre-emptive action.
Beijing's emphasis on respecting Iraq's sovereignty even as it admonishes Baghdad to comply with UN resolutions reflects a deeply held principle. Beijing's reservations about providing UN authorization allowing US military actions against Iraq is consistent with its opposition to military interventions in other countries' domestic affairs. Indeed, China has been derided as the vicar of state sovereignty at a time when the traditional notion of sovereignty is being challenged and eroded as a result of the growing international concern over human-rights abuses and inevitable demands for rights beyond borders.
China worries about the potential for the US to use the pretext of humanitarian intervention to challenge its sovereignty over minority regions such as Tibet and Xinjiang. The US-led NATO intervention in Kosovo sent a chilling warning to policy-makers in Beijing that the UN could be bypassed and that sovereignty could be ignored and violated. The Bush administration's rhetoric about treating terrorist groups and the states that harbor them alike only heightens China's anxiety. A military action by the US to remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein -- something clearly beyond the existing UN mandates on inspections -- will only heighten China's concerns.
US-China relations since Sept. 11 are another consideration weighing on Beijing's Iraq policy and, for that matter, anti-terrorism in general. The past year has seen renewed efforts in both Washington and Beijing to rebuild a tattered bilateral relationship in the wake of EP-3 incident and the largest US arms sales to Taiwan in years. Indeed, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks provide the opportunity for a fresh start for Sino-US relations. Chinese leaders hope that increased cooperation in the area of anti-terrorism can help rebuild a stable bilateral relationship. Despite major differences between the US and China over human rights, humanitarian intervention and regional security issues, the two countries have also pursued common interests in combating narcotics trafficking, international organized crime and terrorism.
China has strong reasons to get on the bandwagon of an international coalition against terrorism due to concerns about its own vulnerability to terrorism in its vast northwestern territories of Xinjiang. Since the late 1980s, Muslim separatists in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region have posed an increasing threat to China's territorial integrity. Xinjiang makes up one-sixth of China's total land area. This vast but thinly populated -- 16.6 million -- region holds potentially large oil deposits -- though these are unconfirmed -- and China's nuclear weapons testing site. In recent years, Muslim separatist movements have increasingly resorted to violence, including explosions, assassinations and street fighting. The central government has responded to the unrest with unrelenting resolve. Islamic fundamentalist elements in Central Asia, Afghanistan and the Middle East have reportedly trained some of the individuals responsible for these attacks. More worrisome, such attacks have begun to spread to major cities like Beijing, Wuhan and Guangzhou.
From Beijing's perspective, Sino-US cooperation on anti-terrorism has arrested a rapidly deteriorating bilateral relationship, toned down the rhetoric within the Bush administration -- at least for the time being -- of calling China as a strategic competitor and a threat to US interests, and necessitated greater and more regular consultation between the two countries. Closer cooperation in terms of intelligence sharing, coordination of law enforcement efforts and extradition of suspected criminals could be particularly helpful if separatist elements in Xinjiang are emboldened by what happened on Sept. 11. Any experience and lessons drawn from US anti-terrorism operations could potentially provide tremendous benefits to Chinese law enforcement efforts.
However, US military campaigns against terrorism and its shifting military doctrine of pre-emption deeply worry China. Beijing is concerned about the likely expansion of a US military presence closer to China's doorstep. One legacy of the 1990 to 1991 Gulf War is an enlarged permanent US military presence in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. Military operations against Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan could bring US armed forces to South and Central Asia, with which China shares over 5,000km of borders.
The US military presence in and its growing ties with Pakistan create particular problems for China. On the one hand, as some Chinese analysts point out, the need to effectively eradicate the sources of terrorism has forced the US to return to a more balanced South Asia policy, which Beijing has long advocated. In addition, US involvement would release pressure on China as the sole prominent supporter of Pakistan at a time of intensified Indo-Pakistani confrontation on the verge of a military crisis.
A strong US presence could also address China's concerns about its own vulnerability to terrorism in its vast northwestern territories of Tibet and Xinjiang. Over the years, the Chinese government has approached Islamabad regarding the training and infiltration of Islamic separatists in Pakistan but has only partially succeeded. Finally, the US military presence in Pakistan to some extent deters an all-out war between India and Pakistan.
On the other hand, the US presence in Pakistan is seen as eroding Chinese influence in that country. Beijing is not in a position, nor does it consider it wise, to compete with the US for Islamabad's allegiance. But it does worry about the weakening of Sino-Pakistani ties. For this reason Beijing has been more active in recent months in cultivating the all-weather bilateral relationship. Major loans have been signed between China and Pakistan recently to provide the urgently needed financial assistance to the latter. Chinese fighter aircraft and spare parts have been transferred to Pakistan. There is also increased traffic in high-level official visits, including General Pervez Musharraf's three trips to China in less than a year and People's Liberation Army Deputy Chief of Staff Xiong Guangkai's (熊光楷) visit to Pakistan.
Over the long run, however, the real impact of the US military presence must be assessed against the general state of Sino-US relations. Should bilateral ties worsen -- not an impossible scenario given the controversies over the leaked US Nuclear Posture Review and Minister of Defense Tang Yao-ming's (湯曜明) high-profile visit to the US -- concerns in Beijing will likely intensify over the apparent if not real encirclement of China by the US through its military alliances in East Asia and now its military presence in Central Asia and Pakistan.
Jing-dong Yuan is a senior research associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies where he also teaches Chinese politics and Northeast Asian security and arms-control issues.
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