Typhoon Sinlaku passed by Taiwan earlier this month causing little of the damage forecasters had predicted. The typhoon's failure to live up to expectations triggered a heated debate between the Central Weather Bureau and some TV weathermen. Residents in low-lying areas such as Hsihchih didn't know whether to laugh or cry over the mixed messages they received. How should they react when the next typhoon warning is issued?
To avoid excessive or insufficient typhoon warnings, the National Science Council sponsored my research team to conduct a review and improve the typhoon forecasting system.
First, a typhoon warning is a public announcement issued by a national weather center -- therefore it must be broadcast and obeyed. Even legal weather forecasting companies or licensed weather forecasters who work in the media must present the warning as it was issued.
When issuing a typhoon warning, I believe that the bureau should produce video information and deliver it to the media using the Internet or other methods, in addition to regular broadcasting methods. The bureau should also be able to require each news medium to air the typhoon warning before running related news. Supplementary analyses given by local forecasters should be broadcast after the official warning. When Sinlaku was nearing Taiwan, many people couldn't even watch the bureau's official announcement because of the other stories.
Second, many counties in the US that are threatened by hurricanes have an emergency manager responsible for liaising with weather authorities and announ-cing disaster prevention measures. In Taiwan, however, a senior government official only goes to disaster prevention centers when a typhoon is approaching. Another problem is that the bureau no longer has a permanent spokesperson. If one person was responsible for issuing warn-ings, the message would be given more weight.
Third, the US National Hurricane Center is an independent agency. All of its forecasts are made by the same group of experts. They have accumulated a great deal of experience and have better forecasting abilities. It's impossible for us to establish a separate typhoon forecasting agency, but it would be good if the bureau could train some of its forecasters to become typhoon experts.
Both the bureau and I believe that the forecasts for Sinlaku were constrained by the techno-logy available. Since our ability in the meteorological sciences is insufficient, all professional forecasters must do their jobs to the best of their ability. Such ability comes from the accumulation of experience. Thus, the system of nurturing experts at the US National Hurricane Center is worth emulating.
Liu Koung-ying is the dean of the College of Sciences at Chinese Culture University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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