To win a battle or campaign, decision-makers typically must analyze three things -- objective, strategy and tactics. The objective is the broad goal. Strategy is the planned action for achieving the goal. And tactics are the various steps one takes to get there.
Take the US' plan to attack Iraq for example. The objective, according to hawkish opinion in the White House, is to oust Saddam Hussein. The strategy is to convince allies, the UN and the US Congress that military action would not be taken without prior consultation. The tactic is to deploy military force and launch air strikes.
The easy part
Articulating the objective is often the easiest part. However, in the campaign for the upcoming Kaohsiung mayoral election, too many people, including the so-called pan-blue camp, do not have very lofty objectives. So far, the pan-blue camp continues to say, "Let's work out a solution by jointly nominating one candidate to defeat the incumbent DPP Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷)." But beating Hsieh should not be the objective. Winning the 2004 presidential election is the objective.
The pan-blue cooperation has two phases: first the mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung and then the presidential election in 2004. Since the incumbent Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is a candidate agreed by everyone in the pan-blue camp, the problem lies in Kaohsiung. Cooperation in Kaohsiung is supposed to be the model for a future KMT-PFP alliance. It is like a primary for the presidential election.
However, like other primaries, the pan-blue camp is having trouble coming up with a joint candidate. The intra-party race for the nomination has been ideological and nasty. This is because the candidates have forgotten that the ultimate objective is to win the presidential election.
The situation got complicated when former interior ministry Chang Po-ya (張博雅), who has the backing of the chairmen of both the KMT and the PFP, decided to join the campaign. Chang's appearance has sparked a hostile response from the KMT nominee, Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英). The ambiguous attitude of the KMT's leaders also demonstrates a lack of leadership. Had the pan-blue camp clearly identified its goal in the upcoming mayoral elections as paving the way to join forces for the 2004 presidential elections it would not have lost sight of the fact that winning both Taipei and Kaohsiung are supposed to be tactics to accomplish this goal.
Division within the KMT
Moreover, the pan-blue camp should not give the appearance that they are accomplices in crime trying to divide loot, in this case power, among themselves. KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) reportedly agreed to endorse Chang in exchange for PFP support in the 2004 presidential election. But rank-and-file KMT members are strongly opposed to fielding a non-KMT candidate. Obviously, Chang has caused division within the KMT, threatening cooperation with its pan-blue partner, the PFP.
The main obstacles to pan-blue cooperation are its failure to reconcile divergent interests and its inability to work out a goal for future development. Unless both sides can find a solution, the pan-blue camp's chances of success are extremely small.
Even so, future cooperation between the KMT and the PFP would be detrimental to the KMT's future, or at least to Lien's leadership, as James Soong and the PFP would be the ultimate beneficiary.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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