Generally speaking, there are four elements in any campaign: the candidate, the issues, the organization and the money. However, the personality factor is the determining variable of this year's Taipei mayoral campaign.
Since the two candidates, incumbent Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
The logic of Ma's tactics is obvious. Generally speaking, if the election is close, the likelihood of political debates is greatly increased. If either has a strong lead, the likelihood of debates is dramatically reduced. With an incumbent seeking re-election, the probability of debate is even smaller.
First, an incumbent's ability is demonstrated by his prior service, while that of the opponent is not.
Second, an incumbent is better able to make his views known. Hence, he is reluctant to provide his opponent a soap box.
Third, the incumbent will almost always be placed on the defensive in a political debate, while the opponent will enjoy opportunities to attack.
Nevertheless, this does not mean Lee has no chance of dictating the tempo of the campaign.
What the Lee camp needs now is to fight to frame the debate. By doing so, Lee could increase his audience and set the agenda. Lee can at least increase voters' knowledge of issues and thereby portray Ma as unresponsive and irresponsible.
Lee and his teammates, including the DPP candidates running for city council, should work together to present a series of issues to challenge Ma.
The objective is not merely to make Ma answer each attack -- it is to make him go crazy trying to respond. Obviously Lee's camp hasn't done enough. The clock is ticking.
The key to making the campaign issue-oriented lies in the extent to which Lee's camp can identify major policy areas and offer better solutions to problems.
Highlighting police corruption does not harm the city government. The voters need a clear reform plan.
Describing the prevalence of the sex trade does not attract female voters, who are in favor of the good-looking Ma.
But if you provide evidence of prostitution in your neighborhood and its influence on your family, that causes concern.
Most importantly, Lee must establish criteria for voters to evaluate the performance of the Taipei mayor and he must convince voters he can perform up to standard. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, praised as "the mayor of the nation" after his calm handling of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, once outlined five principles for a great leadership: have your own philosophy, have courage, be fully prepared, know how to communicate, and know how to lead a team.
Most importantly, Giuliani set the standard for crisis management: inspiring, emotional and tough. Can the incumbent mayor do that if Taipei faces such a crisis?
Can Ma show determination to kick crime and the underground sex industry out of the city? Can Ma successfully improve the effectiveness of his team and face up to his opponent's challenges?
Lee just has to make a greater effort to frame the debate.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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