Sat, Sep 14, 2002 page8

• Editorial: Bubbling cauldron ready to explode

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  The Chinese-language version of management guru Peter Drucker's latest book Managing in the Next Society will soon to hit the Taiwan market. Drucker predicts that China will fall apart within 10 years because farmers are waiting to explode. China has seen farmers' riots every 50 years going back to 1700, according to Drucker. Mao Zedong (毛澤東) led a farmers' revolution to topple the KMT regime in 1949. The time is ripe for another round of riots, as 200 million jobless farmers, often dubbed "the blind flood" (盲流), have nowhere to go.

  Drucker predicted 60 years ago that Marxism was destined to collapse. He also foretold 40 years ago that computers would completely change business management. Given his track record, it is highly possible that his prophecy about China's future will be fulfilled.

  There are another four great crises waiting to explode in China. Novelist Wang Lixiong (王力雄), author of Yellow Peril (黃禍), recently told the Hong Kong media that China's problems lie in the fact that it has the largest population in the world, the least resources per capita, the most powerful desires and the lowest moral standards. He said each of the four crises alone is a serious problem -- together they pose a dire threat.

  The Chinese economy is being eroded by the liabilities of state-owned enterprises, redundant personnel and structural corruption. The gap between rich and poor in China is widening, with the average debt per family of 21,345 yuan (US$2,579). The household debt figure is scary because it is more than the lifetime savings of a farmer's household. Farmers feel that their problems are being ignored in the rush toward economic development and they are becoming increasingly angry over the uneven distribution of resources. The possibility of their launching a new uprising can't be ignored.

  Once unrest occurs in China, it could all too easily become the "yellow peril" described by Wang. Waves of refugees would affect neighboring countries, or even the US. Taiwan must not relax its guard in the face of such possible unrest. It must be prepared for such a crisis, so as not to be at a loss for what to do when catastrophe arrives.

  Despite all the domestic problems facing the Chinese authorities, they insist on deploying 400 missiles along the southeast coast against Taiwan. They still shout "one China" for all the world to hear. After Taiwan's 10th attempt to rejoin the UN was defeated on Thursday, Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan (唐家璇) said that it was a "victory for justice." Hopefully, the people of Taiwan will be able to repay the leaders in Zhongnanhai for these words on the very day turmoil erupts in China. It should be very clear on which side "justice" and "time" will be 10 years from now.

  Despite repeated warnings by Gordon Chang (章家敦), author of The Coming Collapse of China, and Drucker, opportunists around the world and Beijing's megaphones in Taiwan still propagate the false image of Chinese prosperity. This causes foreign and Taiwanese businesspeople to blindly invest in China, as if they have heard none of the warnings of future crisis. Chinese prosperity is certain to last no longer than until the 2008 Olympic Games. After that, one can expect to see the beginning of turmoil and the break-up of China.
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