Sat, Aug 31, 2002 page8

• Don't use cross-strait issues for votes

  • By Kao Koong-lian 高孔廉
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  In a video telecast to the 29th annual meeting of the World Federation of Taiwanese Asso-ciations in Tokyo Aug. 3, Presi-dent Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) said for the first time that there is "one country on either side" of the Taiwan Strait. He also repeated that Taiwan must go its own way, a statement he first made on July 21. These strong statements are important new variables in the cross-strait relationship and something that should cause concern among the public.

  From a certain point of view, Chen's statements are understandable. He believes that he has shown China much goodwill since becoming president, without getting anything in return. On the diplomatic battlefield, China even chose the day Chen was installed as DPP chairman to declare the establishment of diplomatic relations with Nauru, thereby undermining his position.

  Taking a dispassionate stance, Chen has shown China a lot of goodwill these past two years, in particular through the "five no's" he formulated in his inaugural address. This statement relaxed the tense cross-strait situation in the period between his election and his inauguration, thus gaining the public's approval.

  Apart from this, in his millennium talks, he mentioned cross-strait integration which was seen to be quite pragmatic. There were also the opening up of the small three links and the opening up of Taiwan for Chinese tourism. Even though some have said these measures were too small and claimed that they are not what they seem to be, they are still a step forward.

  Goodwill, however, is decided by the counterpart's reaction, and is not a unilateral decision. China, for example, believes that its "peaceful unification, one country two systems" policy for dealing with Taiwan, and even President Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) "Eight Points" proposed in 1995, have been goodwill gestures toward Taiwan.

  From Taiwan's point of view, however, they still fall within the "one China" framework and could never be called goodwill. With the same reasoning, Taipei's goodwill is not seen as such by China. They see it as words without action and have decided to form a response by listening to what Chen says and watching what he does.

  When Chen first proposed that Taiwan "go its own way," he caught the attention of all segments of society, the statement attracting many and varying interpretations. Since there is no way we would follow China's way and we have not been following our own way during the past two years, we haven't been following the way leading to US satellitehood for Taiwan?

  On Aug. 3, Chen further explained the expression, saying that it is a way leading to democracy, freedom, human rights and peace. This causes further doubt whether it is the way we have been striving to follow for the past decade, or at least for the two years since the transfer of power.

  In his speech, Chen once again talked of there being a "country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait and considering the necessity and urgency of referendum-related legislation. Contrasted with the "five no's" in his inauguration speech -- in particular the "no" to incorporating the state-to-state policy into the Constitution and the "no" to initiating an independence referendum -- the phrasing is different and it is difficult to say whether or not he is breaking his promises. It is obvious, however, that these are the methods of a lawyer pushing the limits.

  The Chen administration should be aware that the people of Taiwan have a good understanding of the cross-strait relationship. When former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) announced his "state-to-state" reformulation of cross-strait relations in 1999, the stock market lost 500 points in a single day and US-Taiwanese relations became quite tense. Chen's statements seem to go one step further. With the word "special" eliminated, it remains to be seen how China and the US will treat Chen's position and how the Taiwanese people will perceive it.

  During these past two years, Taiwan has suffered an unprecedented economic downturn. The first six months of this year have finally seen signs of some recovery. The main source for this strength is the massive increase in exports to China (statistics show that exports to China grew by 45 percent during the first five months this year).

  Why now create problems where there are none by provoking China?

  If the reason for doing so is China's establishment of diplomatic relations with Nauru, why not look at the matter as one official in the Presidential Office did, who said it was a joyous occasion. We have been rid of a "friend" standing there with his hand stretched out asking for money. We've saved funds which can be redirected into our gradually-emptying treasury.

  The most tragic thing is that the government is manipulating the cross-strait situation to win votes, turning a serious issue into a matter of populism. This may give the government a minority of extremist votes, but for most of the people of Taiwan a nightmare would develop.

  I hope that the government will be able to find a solution and think of the common man. A Boxer-movement style populism will not solve the complex cross-strait problem and it will forfeit the maneuvering room necessary for turning quantitative into qualitative change.

  Kao Koong-lian is a professor at Chung-yuan Christian University and a former first vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council.

  Translated by Perry Svensson
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