China held an air raid drill in Shanghai on Tuesday. Similar drills had been held in recent years in other major cities along China's southeastern coast, but the Shanghai drill comes at a sensitive time -- in the wake of the "one country on each side" remarks by President Chen Shui-bian (
The scenario of Tuesday's drill was that "an island wants independence with the support of a big country. As part of their attempt, they attack Shanghai's crucial government establishments." The Shanghai city government was worried enough about the impact the drill would have on foreign investors and businesses that it announced the drill was just a routine exercise to mark the anniversary of a 1937 battle against the Japanese. The PLA, however, was very clear about who its enemies in the drill were -- the US and Taiwan. The brass from the Nanjing military region also publicly lashed out at Chen's "one country on each side" statement.
Beijing has tried to intimidate Taiwan before with "invasion" war games. Such intimidation tactics have all failed -- every PLA landing drill along the Chinese coastline and every missile test across the Taiwan Strait -- whether they took place against the backdrop of the 1996 missile crisis or the 1999 row over cross-strait relations being "special state-to-state" in nature. Such tactics both anger the Taiwanese public and inspire them to vote for the most "anti-Chinese" politician or political party. International media stories about Beijing's tactics also give the image of a Chinese war machine baring its fangs, only to be snubbed by a fearless Taiwan. Such saber-rattling has also prompted the US to strengthen military cooperation with Taiwan. Beijing ends up the biggest loser all round.
Military exercises are a normal affair for any country. Taiwan's armed forces closely monitor PLA exercises along the Chinese coast, but seldom makes a big fuss about them. Since the Taiwan military won't oblige by panicking, the Chinese military tries to scare the Taiwanese public and financial markets by exaggerating the significance of such drills via Hong Kong and Taiwan media. Even though many media organizations in Taiwan made a big deal out of Tuesday's drill, the general public largely ignored it -- proving they have developed an immunity to such intimidation tactics. Chen urging the public not to scare themselves -- his best response might have just to been to ignore the drill completely.
In fact, the Shanghai drill could be a cause for joy, not fear, on Taiwan's part. In a way, the drill amounts to an admission from China that the combat radius of Taiwan's air force covers Shanghai -- a backhanded sort of admission that the PLA takes Taiwan's military prowess seriously. Islandwide air raid drills are common in Taiwan. If Beijing follows suits and holds its own air raid drill, Chen should perhaps publicly commend the Ministry of National Defense for its striking such fear into the hearts of PLA command-ers. Such a balance of terror across the Taiwan Strait will ensure that any side mulling a military attack will first consider the other side's capacity for retaliation. This will be a concrete guarantee of security in the Taiwan Strait.
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